Table 3. Environmental impacts of agricultural frontiers under both RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 2060–2080 climate projections.

Areas of significant biodiversity resources assessed are biodiversity hotspots; endemic bird areas (EBA); key biodiversity areas (KBA). Numbers presented for biodiversity resources are the median [range] number of areas that intersection with frontiers across all GCMs. Potential impacts on restricted range bird species are presented as the median [range] number of species with modeled range intersection with frontiers in current and 2060–80 climate projection. Modeled future ranges are assessed under an assumption of no-dispersal and a 10 km/decade dispersal rate.

Global Conservation Priority/Ecosystem Service	Potential Impact of Climate-Driven Agricultural Frontiers
Important Biodiversity Areas	RCP8.5	RCP4.5
Biodiversity Hotspots (n = 34)	19 [18–22]	19 [17–21]
Endemic Bird Areas (n = 218)	48 [43–52]	49 [43–54]
Key Biodiversity Areas (n = 11,824)	1590 [1361–1810]	1601 [1416–1788]
Restricted Range Birds
Current Range	409 [375–436]	409 [380–442]
2060–80—No Dispersal	385 [344–410]	228 [185–295]
2060–80—Full Dispersal	491 [452–525]	362 [294–432]