Table 2. Observed and projected total deaths, and proportions from a disease associated with palliative care need, in Ireland to 2046.
| 2015 | 2026 | 2036 | 2046 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All recorded deaths | N y= | 30,127 | |||
| Deaths recorded with PC need |
n
y=
p(N y)= |
22,806
76% |
|||
| All projected deaths |
N
y=
Rate of change index= |
32,860
114 |
40,209
139 |
48,631
168 |
|
| Deaths projected with PC need | |||||
| Method 1: Gomez-Batiste, 75% of all deaths |
n
y=
p(N y)= Rate of change index= |
24,645
75% 114 |
30,157
75% 139 |
36,473
75% 168 |
|
| Method 2a: Constant needs from 2015, 76% of all deaths |
n
y=
p(N y)= Rate of change index= |
24,875
76% 114 |
30,438
76% 139 |
36,813
76% 168 |
|
| Method 2b: Annual change, 2007–2015 |
n
y=
p(N y)= Rate of change index= |
25,699
78% 117 |
32,392
81% 147 |
40,355
83% 184 |
|
| Method 2c: Annual change, 2012–2015 |
n
y=
p(N y)= Rate of change index= |
25,666
78% 117 |
32,314
80% 147 |
40,211
83% 183 |
|
| Method 2d: Annual change, 2007–2015, by age/gender |
n
y=
p(N y)= Rate of change index= |
25,554
78% 117 |
31,796
79% 145 |
39,081
80% 178 |
For full details of each projection method, see Methods>Projection methods. PC=palliative care. N y=total number, all deaths in a given year (y); n y=number of deaths from a disease indicating palliative care need according to a given projection method; p( N y) is proportion of deaths in a given year with PC need, i.e. ( n y/ N y)*100; Rate of change index=(n y/[n 2016])*100