TABLE 1. Incidence of type 1 diabetes per 100,000 persons per year and annual percent change (APC) in incidence in youths aged <20 years, overall and by age at diagnosis, sex, and race/ethnicity — SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study (SEARCH), United States,* 2002–2015 –
| Characteristic | Incidence rate (95% CI) |
Adjusted APC§ 2002–2010 (95% CI) | Incidence rate (95% CI) |
Adjusted APC† 2011–2015 (95% CI) | Adjusted APC§ 2002–2015 (95% CI) | Change from 2002–2010 to 2011–2015 (95% CI) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002–2003 | 2009–2010 | 2011–2012 | 2014–2015 | |||||
| Overall | 19.5 (18.3 to 20.8) | 20.4 (19.2 to 21.7) | 2.0 (0.9 to 3.2)¶ | 21.7 (20.4 to 23.0) | 22.3 (21.0 to 23.6) | 1.9 (0.9 to 2.9)¶ | 1.93 (1.34 to 2.51)¶ | −0.1 (−1.9 to 1.6) |
| Age group at diagnosis (yrs) | ||||||||
| 0–4 | 16.5 (14.3 to 19.1) | 13.8 (11.9 to 16.0) | 0.3 (−2.2 to 3.0) | 14.3 (12.4 to 16.6) | 14.4 (12.4 to 16.7) | 0.8 (−1.4 to 3.0) | 0.6 (−0.72 to 1.93) | 0.4 (−3.5 to 4.5) |
| 5–9 | 24.0 (21.3 to 27.0) | 27.5 (24.7 to 30.6) | 3.3 (1.2 to 5.3)¶ | 27.7 (25.0 to 30.8) | 27.1 (24.4 to 30.1) | 0.9 (−0.8 to 2.7) | 1.91 (0.86 to 2.98)¶ | −2.3 (−5.3 to 0.8) |
| 10–14 | 26.4 (23.7 to 29.3) | 28.7 (25.9 to 31.8) | 1.7 (−0.2 to 3.7) | 31.8 (28.8 to 35.0) | 33.5 (30.5 to 36.8) | 3.0 (1.3 to 4.8)¶ | 2.4 (1.39 to 3.42)¶ | 1.3 (−1.7 to 4.4) |
| 15–19 | 11.0 (9.2 to 13.0) | 12.0 (10.3 to 14.1) | 2.7 (0.1 to 5.4)¶ | 12.9 (11.1 to 15.0) | 13.6 (11.8 to 15.8) | 2.3 (0.1 to 4.6)¶ | 2.44 (1.09 to 3.8)¶ | −0.4 (−4.3 to 3.7) |
| Sex | ||||||||
| Female | 19.2 (17.5 to 21.0) | 19.7 (18.1 to 21.6) | 2.5 (0.8 to 4.2)¶ | 19.9 (18.3 to 21.8) | 20.4 (18.7 to 22.3) | 1.0 (−0.4 to 2.4) | 1.5 (0.68 to 2.33)¶ | −1.4 (−3.9 to 1.1) |
| Male | 19.8 (18.2 to 21.7) | 21.0 (19.3 to 22.9) | 1.8 (0.2 to 3.4)¶ | 23.4 (21.6 to 25.3) | 24.1 (22.2 to 26.0) | 2.6 (1.3 to 4.0)¶ | 2.33 (1.54 to 3.12)¶ | 0.8 (−1.6 to 3.3) |
| Race/Ethnicity | ||||||||
| White | 23.9 (22.2 to 25.7) | 25.4 (23.7 to 27.4) | 1.2 (−0.1 to 2.6) | 27.0 (25.2 to 29.0) | 27.3 (25.5 to 29.3) | 0.5 (−0.7 to 1.7) | 0.73 (0.02 to 1.44)¶ | −0.8 (−2.9 to 1.4) |
| Black | 14.7 (12.1 to 17.7) | 15.5 (12.9 to 18.6) | 1.2 (−1.5 to 3.9) | 19.0 (16.1 to 22.4) | 20.8 (17.7 to 24.4) | 4.0 (1.7 to 6.3)¶ | 2.72 (1.42 to 4.03)¶ | 2.8 (−1.4 to 7.1) |
| Hispanic | 13.7 (11.4 to 16.4) | 16.3 (14.0 to 18.9) | 5.9 (3.4 to 8.6)¶ | 14.8 (12.7 to 17.3) | 16.3 (14.1 to 18.8) | 2.5 (0.5 to 4.6)¶ | 4.05 (2.84 to 5.28)¶ | −3.2 (−6.7 to 0.4) |
| Asian/Pacific Islander | 7.9 (5.0 to 12.3) | 5.5 (3.4 to 8.9) | −1.5 (−7.4 to 4.8) | 9.8 (6.8 to 13.9) | 9.4 (6.6 to 13.3) | 8.5 (3.2 to 14.0)¶ | 4.36 (1.44 to 7.37)¶ | 10.1 (0.1 to 21.1)¶ |
| American Indian** | 6.6 (3.5 to 12.8) | 5.0 (2.3 to 10.7) | −2.0 (−12.2 to 9.5) | 6.5 (3.3 to 12.9) | 6.2 (3.0 to 12.9) | 3.7 (−5.8 to 14.2) | 1.17 (−4.05 to 6.68) | 5.8 (−11.2 to 26.1) |
Abbreviation: CI = confidence interval.
* SEARCH includes data on youths (<20 years) in Colorado (all 64 counties plus selected Indian reservations in Arizona and New Mexico under the direction of Colorado), Ohio (eight counties), South Carolina (all 46 counties), Washington (five counties), and in California for Kaiser Permanente Southern California health plan enrollees in seven counties.
† APC based on model with change point at 2011 and adjusted as follows: overall results adjusted by age, sex, and race/ethnicity; results by age adjusted for sex and race/ethnicity; results by sex adjusted for age and race/ethnicity; results by race/ethnicity adjusted for age and sex.
§ APC based on model without a change point from 2002 to 2015 and adjusted as follows: overall results adjusted by age, sex, and race/ethnicity; results by age adjusted for sex and race/ethnicity; results by sex adjusted for age and race/ethnicity; results by race/ethnicity adjusted for age and sex.
¶ APC and change from 2002–2010 to 2011–2015 significantly different from zero (as indicated by 95% CI that does not include zero).
** Primarily persons from one southwestern tribe.