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. 2020 Feb 13;10:2592. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-59077-1

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Mapped AIP probabilities predicted by joint-model (Model5). Weeks 7, 15, 18, 23, 33, and 51 of the year are labeled as A through F respectively. Color coding and legend reflect relative probability (0.00–1.00) of H5 or H7 occurrence in North American Poultry with darker colors signifying increased likelihood. Note that C representing week 18 of the year (late April – early May) was predicted to exhibit the greatest AIP probability.