Table 1.
Summary of validation analysis results for clinical trials selected for the Fifth Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge
| Diabetes model | Coefficient of determination (absolute risk) | Coefficient of determination (risk differencea) | Endpoints predicted by model (total = 45) |
|---|---|---|---|
| CDS | 0.637 | 0.442 | 18 |
| IMS CORE | 0.496 | 0.113 | 34 |
| MICHIGAN | 0.212 | 0.041 | 23 |
| ECHO-T2DM | 0.519 | 0.325 | 33 |
| UKPDS-OM1 | 0.616 | 0.290 | 21 |
| UKPDS RE | 0.733b | 0.665b | 4 |
| CDC-RTI | 0.724b | 0.212 | 20 |
| CARDIFF | 0.536 | 0.034 | 15 |
| EBMI | 0.134 | 0.418 | 17 |
CARDIFF Cardiff Research Consortium Model, CDC-RTI Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-RTI Diabetes Cost-effectiveness Model, CDS Cornerstone Diabetes Simulation, EBMI Evidence-Based Medicine Integrator Simulator, ECHO-T2DM Economics and Health Outcomes in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Model, IMS CORE IMS CORE Diabetes Model, MICHIGAN Michigan Model for Diabetes, UKPDS-OM1 United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model, UKPDS RE United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study Risk Engine
aRisk difference is defined as the absolute risk of a given outcome in the control arm minus that in the intervention arm
bDenotes a model with a higher coefficient of determination than the CDS model