Table 1.
The summary table of the model estimations. Population numbers are summarised in units of one million
| Region | Population | Model | Epidemic period | Final size | Reproduction number | Turning point | R-squared | Improvement | AIC | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nigeria | 186 | Baseline: AR(2) | from EW44-2016 to EW22-2017 | NA | NA | NA | 0.9959 | 0.00% | 198.8 | NA |
| Nigeria | 186 | Richards | from EW44-2016 to EW22-2017 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Nigeria | 186 | Logistic | from EW44-2016 to EW22-2017 | 196; (191, 201) | 1.24; (1.22, 1.25) | EW10-2017; (EW10-2017, EW10-2017) | 0.9973 | 34.80% | 191.8 | 0.968 |
| Nigeria | 186 | Gompertz | from EW44-2016 to EW22-2017 | 221; (208, 233) | 1.14; (1.12, 1.15) | EW08-2017; (EW08-2017, EW09-2017) | 0.9969 | 23.90% | 198.6 | 0.032 |
| Nigeria | 186 | Weibull | from EW44-2016 to EW22-2017 | 350; (252, 448) | 1.05; (1.04, 1.07) | EW14-2017; (EW09-2017, EW18-2017) | 0.9937 | −53.80% | 220.5 | excluded |
| Nigeria | 186 | Model average | from EW44-2016 to EW22-2017 | 197; (192, 202) | 1.23; (1.22, 1.24) | EW10-2017; (EW10-2017, EW10-2017) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Nigeria | 190.9 | Baseline: AR(2) | from EW44-2017 to EW22-2018 | NA | NA | NA | 0.9977 | 0.00% | 157 | NA |
| Nigeria | 190.9 | Richards | from EW44-2017 to EW22-2018 | 464; (458, 470) | 1.33; (1.28, 1.37) | EW09-2018; (EW08-2018, EW09-2018) | 0.9984 | 32.00% | 151.2 | 0.933 |
| Nigeria | 190.9 | Logistic | from EW44-2017 to EW22-2018 | 468; (462, 474) | 1.41; (1.39, 1.43) | EW08-2018; (EW08-2018, EW08-2018) | 0.998 | 14.00% | 156.5 | 0.067 |
| Nigeria | 190.9 | Gompertz | from EW44-2017 to EW22-2018 | 474; (465, 483) | 1.31; (1.29, 1.34) | EW07-2018; (EW07-2018, EW07-2018) | 0.9972 | −20.60% | 169 | excluded |
| Nigeria | 190.9 | Weibull | from EW44-2017 to EW22-2018 | 491; (475, 507) | 1.08; (1.08, 1.08) | EW07-2018; (EW07-2018, EW07-2018) | 0.9955 | −91.10% | 183.3 | excluded |
| Nigeria | 190.9 | Model average | from EW44-2017 to EW22-2018 | 464; (458, 470) | 1.33; (1.29, 1.37) | EW09-2018; (EW08-2018, EW09-2018) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Nigeria | 195.9 | Baseline: AR(2) | from EW44-2018 to EW13-2019 | NA | NA | NA | 0.9969 | 0.00% | 98.8 | NA |
| Nigeria | 195.9 | Richards | from EW44-2018 to EW13-2019 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Nigeria | 195.9 | Logistic | from EW44-2018 to EW13-2019 | 623; (593, 653) | 1.36; (1.32, 1.39) | EW06-2019; (EW06-2019, EW07-2019) | 0.9953 | −54.00% | 111.5 | excluded |
| Nigeria | 195.9 | Gompertz | from EW44-2018 to EW13-2019 | 669; (620, 717) | 1.24; (1.21, 1.28) | EW05-2019; (EW05-2019, EW06-2019) | 0.9957 | −39.40% | 111.3 | excluded |
| Nigeria | 195.9 | Weibull | from EW44-2018 to EW13-2019 | 795; (670, 921) | 1.08; (1.08, 1.09) | EW06-2019; (EW05-2019, EW07-2019) | 0.9951 | −0.599 | 114.3 | excluded |
| Nigeria | 195.9 | Model average | from EW44-2018 to EW13-2019 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Edo state | 4.2 | Baseline: AR(2) | from EW50-2017 to EW18-2018 | NA | NA | NA | 0.9901 | 0.00% | 127.7 | NA |
| Edo state | 4.2 | Richards | from EW50-2017 to EW18-2018 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Edo state | 4.2 | Logistic | from EW50-2017 to EW18-2018 | 175; (173, 178) | 1.62; (1.58, 1.66) | EW09-2018; (EW08-2018, EW09-2018) | 0.9984 | 83.70% | 95.6 | 0.995 |
| Edo state | 4.2 | Gompertz | from EW50-2017 to EW18-2018 | 178; (174, 181) | 1.46; (1.42, 1.50) | EW08-2018; (EW08-2018, EW08-2018) | 0.9976 | 75.40% | 106.2 | 0.005 |
| Edo state | 4.2 | Weibull | from EW50-2017 to EW18-2018 | 182; (176, 189) | 1.13; (1.13, 1.13) | EW08-2018; (EW08-2018, EW08-2018) | 0.9963 | 62.20% | 115.3 | 0 |
| Edo state | 4.2 | Model average | from EW50-2017 to EW18-2018 | 175; (173, 178) | 1.62; (1.58, 1.66) | EW09-2018; (EW08-2018, EW09-2018) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Ondo state | 4.7 | Baseline: AR(2) | from EW48-2017 to EW18-2018 | NA | NA | NA | 0.9917 | 0.00% | 129.2 | NA |
| Ondo state | 4.7 | Richards | from EW48-2017 to EW18-2018 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Ondo state | 4.7 | Logistic | from EW48-2017 to EW18-2018 | 111; (108, 113) | 1.41; (1.37, 1.45) | EW07-2018; (EW06-2018, EW07-2018) | 0.9946 | 35.40% | 124.6 | 0.007 |
| Ondo state | 4.7 | Gompertz | from EW48-2017 to EW18-2018 | 114; (111, 117) | 1.28; (1.26, 1.31) | EW05-2018; (EW05-2018, EW06-2018) | 0.9968 | 61.50% | 114.7 | 0.99 |
| Ondo state | 4.7 | Weibull | from EW48-2017 to EW18-2018 | 128; (118, 138) | 1.14; (1.13, 1.15) | EW06-2018; (EW05-2018, EW06-2018) | 0.9947 | 36.40% | 126.3 | 0.003 |
| Ondo state | 4.7 | Model average | from EW48-2017 to EW18-2018 | 114; (111, 117) | 1.28; (1.26, 1.31) | EW05-2018; (EW05-2018, EW06-2018) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Ebonyi state | 2.9 | Baseline: AR(2) | from EW45-2017 to EW18-2018 | NA | NA | NA | 0.9937 | 0.00% | 117.8 | NA |
| Ebonyi state | 2.9 | Richards | from EW45-2017 to EW18-2018 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Ebonyi state | 2.9 | Logistic | from EW45-2017 to EW18-2018 | 63; (62, 64) | 1.55; (1.51, 1.58) | EW08-2018; (EW08-2018, EW08-2018) | 0.9982 | 0.708 | 90 | 0.999 |
| Ebonyi state | 2.9 | Gompertz | from EW45-2017 to EW18-2018 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Ebonyi state | 2.9 | Weibull | from EW45-2017 to EW18-2018 | 66; (64, 69) | 1.09; (1.09, 1.09) | EW07-2018; (EW07-2018, EW07-2018) | 0.997 | 52.60% | 104.6 | 0.001 |
| Ebonyi state | 2.9 | Model average | from EW45-2017 to EW18-2018 | 63; (62, 64) | 1.55; (1.51, 1.58) | EW08-2018; (EW08-2018, EW08-2018) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Bauchi state | 6.5 | Baseline: AR(2) | from EW49-2017 to EW16-2018 | NA | NA | NA | 0.9734 | 0.00% | 50.2 | NA |
| Bauchi state | 6.5 | Richards | from EW49-2017 to EW16-2018 | 12; (11, 13) | 1.34; (1.24, 1.44) | EW12-2018; (EW11-2018, EW13-2018) | 0.9936 | 76.00% | 26.5 | 0.483 |
| Bauchi state | 6.5 | Logistic | from EW49-2017 to EW16-2018 | 13; (12, 14) | 1.43; (1.37, 1.48) | EW12-2018; (EW11-2018, EW12-2018) | 0.993 | 73.70% | 26.4 | 0.515 |
| Bauchi state | 6.5 | Gompertz | from EW49-2017 to EW16-2018 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Bauchi state | 6.5 | Weibull | from EW49-2017 to EW16-2018 | 17; (12, 21) | 1.09; (1.08, 1.09) | EW12-2018; (EW10-2018, EW13-2018) | 0.9889 | 58.40% | 37.5 | 0.002 |
| Bauchi state | 6.5 | Model average | from EW49-2017 to EW16-2018 | 13; (12, 14) | 1.38; (1.31, 1.46) | EW12-2018; (EW11-2018, EW13-2018) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Plateau state | 4.2 | Baseline: AR(2) | from EW48-2017 to EW16-2018 | NA | NA | NA | 0.9576 | 0.00% | 45.1 | NA |
| Plateau state | 4.2 | Richards | from EW48-2017 to EW16-2018 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Plateau state | 4.2 | Logistic | from EW48-2017 to EW16-2018 | 9; ( 8, 10) | 1.40; (1.32, 1.47) | EW12-2018; (EW11-2018, EW13-2018) | 0.9847 | 63.90% | 26.4 | 0.301 |
| Plateau state | 4.2 | Gompertz | from EW48-2017 to EW16-2018 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Plateau state | 4.2 | Weibull | from EW48-2017 to EW16-2018 | 16; ( 6, 25) | 1.07; (1.05, 1.09) | EW14-2018; (EW09-2018, EW19-2018) | 0.9872 | 69.70% | 24.7 | 0.699 |
| Plateau state | 4.2 | Model average | from EW48-2017 to EW16-2018 | 14; (7, 20) | 1.17; (1.13, 1.21) | EW13-2018; (EW10-2018, EW17-2018) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Edo state | 4.3 | Baseline: AR(2) | from EW46-2018 to EW13-2019 | NA | NA | NA | 0.9919 | 0.00% | 119 | NA |
| Edo state | 4.3 | Richards | from EW46-2018 to EW13-2019 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Edo state | 4.3 | Logistic | from EW46-2018 to EW13-2019 | 210; (194, 225) | 1.37; (1.32, 1.42) | EW07-2019; (EW06-2019, EW07-2019) | 0.9907 | −14.60% | 127.3 | excluded |
| Edo state | 4.3 | Gompertz | from EW46-2018 to EW13-2019 | 232; (207, 257) | 1.23; (1.19, 1.27) | EW06-2019; (EW05-2019, EW06-2019) | 0.994 | 25.70% | 120.6 | excluded |
| Edo state | 4.3 | Weibull | from EW46-2018 to EW13-2019 | 307; (230, 384) | 1.09; (1.08, 1.10) | EW07-2019; (EW05-2019, EW09-2019) | 0.9947 | 34.40% | 118.1 | 1 |
| Edo state | 4.3 | Model average | from EW46-2018 to EW13-2019 | 307; (230, 384) | 1.09; (1.08, 1.10) | EW07-2019; (EW05-2019, EW09-2019) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Ondo state | 4.8 | Baseline: AR(2) | from EW44-2018 to EW13-2019 | NA | NA | NA | 0.9941 | 0.00% | 104.5 | NA |
| Ondo state | 4.8 | Richards | from EW44-2018 to EW13-2019 | 165; (155, 176) | 1.31; (1.21, 1.41) | EW06-2019; (EW05-2019, EW07-2019) | 0.9927 | −24.00% | 115.2 | excluded |
| Ondo state | 4.8 | Logistic | from EW44-2018 to EW13-2019 | 170; (161, 179) | 1.37; (1.33, 1.42) | EW05-2019; (EW05-2019, EW06-2019) | 0.9922 | −32.40% | 114.7 | excluded |
| Ondo state | 4.8 | Gompertz | from EW44-2018 to EW13-2019 | 176; (162, 190) | 1.28; (1.23, 1.34) | EW04-2019; (EW04-2019, EW05-2019) | 0.991 | −53.30% | 119.9 | excluded |
| Ondo state | 4.8 | Weibull | from EW44-2018 to EW13-2019 | 193; (165, 221) | 1.09; (1.09, 1.10) | EW05-2019; (EW04-2019, EW06-2019) | 0.9895 | −78.00% | 123.2 | excluded |
| Ondo state | 4.8 | Model average | from EW44-2018 to EW13-2019 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Ebonyi state | 3 | Baseline: AR(2) | from EW48-2018 to EW13-2019 | NA | NA | NA | 0.9692 | 0.00% | 89.5 | NA |
| Ebonyi state | 3 | Richards | from EW48-2018 to EW13-2019 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Ebonyi state | 3 | Logistic | from EW48-2018 to EW13-2019 | 41; (36, 46) | 1.43; (1.32, 1.54) | EW07-2019; (EW07-2019, EW08-2019) | 0.9749 | 18.40% | 91.2 | excluded |
| Ebonyi state | 3 | Gompertz | from EW48-2018 to EW13-2019 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Ebonyi state | 3 | Weibull | from EW48-2018 to EW13-2019 | 59; (35, 83) | 1.10; (1.08, 1.13) | EW08-2019; (EW05-2019, EW10-2019) | 0.9853 | 52.40% | 83.5 | 1 |
| Ebonyi state | 3 | Model average | from EW48-2018 to EW13-2019 | 59; (35, 83) | 1.10; (1.08, 1.13) | EW08-2019; (EW05-2019, EW10-2019) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Bauchi state | 6.7 | Baseline: AR(2) | from EW48-2018 to EW13-2019 | NA | NA | NA | 0.9657 | 0.00% | 74 | NA |
| Bauchi state | 6.7 | Richards | from EW48-2018 to EW13-2019 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Bauchi state | 6.7 | Logistic | from EW48-2018 to EW13-2019 | 49; (44, 53) | 1.34; (1.27, 1.40) | EW05-2019; (EW04-2019, EW06-2019) | 0.979 | 38.80% | 69.7 | 0.002 |
| Bauchi state | 6.7 | Gompertz | from EW48-2018 to EW13-2019 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Bauchi state | 6.7 | Weibull | from EW48-2018 to EW13-2019 | 137; ( 8, 266) | 1.06; (1.03, 1.09) | EW15-2019; (EW02-2019, EW41-2019) | 0.9907 | 72.90% | 57.1 | 0.998 |
| Bauchi state | 6.7 | Model average | from EW48-2018 to EW13-2019 | 137; (8, 266) | 1.06; (1.03, 1.09) | EW15-2019; (EW02-2019, EW40-2019) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Plateau state | 4.3 | Baseline: AR(2) | from EW48-2018 to EW13-2019 | NA | NA | NA | 0.9679 | 0.00% | 72.2 | NA |
| Plateau state | 4.3 | Richards | from EW48-2018 to EW13-2019 | 35; (33, 37) | 1.37; (1.23, 1.49) | EW06-2019; (EW04-2019, EW07-2019) | 0.9875 | 61.10% | 61.6 | 0.28 |
| Plateau state | 4.3 | Logistic | from EW48-2018 to EW13-2019 | 36; (34, 38) | 1.52; (1.43, 1.60) | EW05-2019; (EW04-2019, EW05-2019) | 0.9851 | 53.70% | 62.7 | 0.161 |
| Plateau state | 4.3 | Gompertz | from EW48-2018 to EW13-2019 | 36; (34, 37) | 1.50; (1.38, 1.61) | EW05-2019; (EW04-2019, EW05-2019) | 0.9874 | 60.60% | 61.8 | 0.253 |
| Plateau state | 4.3 | Weibull | from EW48-2018 to EW13-2019 | 37; (34, 39) | 1.14; (1.13, 1.15) | EW05-2019; (EW04-2019, EW05-2019) | 0.9876 | 61.40% | 61.4 | 0.306 |
| Plateau state | 4.3 | Model average | from EW48-2018 to EW13-2019 | 36; (34, 38) | 1.35; (1.27, 1.43) | EW05-2019; (EW04-2019, EW06-2019) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
The ‘improvement’ is the partial R-squared. The ‘weight’ is the AIC-weight of the selected model, which is used for calculating the model-averaged estimates. The ‘NA’ means a summary term that is not applicable to a certain model. The notation ‘–’ means that the model cannot achieve a converging fitting outcome. The model-averaged estimates in each region are highlighted in grey.