Table 3.

Recommendations for model selections

Modeling exercise	Scenario	PO	DTMM	CTMM
Model building	Based on evenly spaced data	Case by casea	OK	OK
	Based on unevenly spaced data	Case by casea	NO	OK
Model application	Derive the proportion of AE grade over time	Case by casea	OK	OK
	Derive the cumulative probability, and the time to first AE event of interest	NO	OK	OK
	Conduct CTS	OK with exceptionsb	OK with exceptionsc	OK

AE, adverse event; CTMM, Continuous‐time Markov model; CTS, clinical trial simulations; DTMM, discrete‐time Markov model; PO, proportional odds model.

^aThe performance might deteriorate with more frequent intervals when the Markov properties became stronger. ^bExceptions applied: need to first pass a visual predictive check for “proportion of AE grade over time”; only for simulating the clinical trials without dose adaptation based on individual AE prediction. ^cExceptions applied: only for simulating the data set with the same frequencies as the model‐building data set.