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. 2020 Feb 14;10:2618. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-58899-3

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Overall temporal trend (month specific risk) common to all communities exp(δ_t). Posterior median (red) and 95% credible interval (black). (A) Overall temporal trend from null model. (B) Overall temporal trend from full model without space-time. (C) Overall temporal trend adjusted for covariates effect with space-time. The dashed horizontal black line represents the monthly average of national temporal random effect (January 2015-December 2017).