Table 4.
Results by country in the base case scenario (all countries using rotavirus vaccine from 2018 to 2027)
| Number of fully immunised children | Averted cases of rotavirus | Averted deaths by rotavirus | Total health-care costs averted government perspective (US$)* | Vaccine programme costs (US$)* | Vaccine programme costs with Gavi subsidy (US$)* | Cost per DALY averted government perspective (US$)*† | GDP per capita (US$) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afghanistan | Rotarix | 7 762 176 | 1 580 540 | 7305 | 1 790 959 | 54 638 902 | 20 878 029 | 102 (68–174) | 562 |
| Angola | Rotarix | 9 358 710 | 2 242 237 | 30 528 | 21 333 511 | 77 669 464 | 77 669 464 | 74 (36–119) | 3309 |
| Armenia | Rotarix | 307 794 | 106 670 | 9 | 473 387 | 2 499 384 | 2 499 384 | 4337 (2225–6420) | 3615 |
| Azerbaijan | Rotavac | 1 296 082 | 256 505 | 183 | 1 388 389 | 10 954 903 | 10 954 903 | 1824 (678–3460) | 3879 |
| Bangladesh | Rotasiil | 27 821 356 | 6 381 993 | 6038 | 12 508 907 | 224 858 236 | 168 951 095 | 911 (565–1219) | 1359 |
| Benin | Rotavac | 3 409 188 | 915 805 | 6618 | 2 419 236 | 23 113 488 | 13 917 319 | 69 (37–100) | 789 |
| Bhutan | Rotavac | 130 982 | 31 051 | 16 | 130 410 | 1 101 703 | 1 101 703 | 1993 (851–3758) | 2774 |
| Bolivia | Rotarix | 2 458 502 | 552 970 | 820 | 4 601 265 | 40 490 928 | 40 490 928 | 1599 (868–2513) | 3105 |
| Burkina Faso | Rotateq | 6 938 849 | 1 741 437 | 11 105 | 4 990 861 | 92 210 089 | 26 332 567 | 76 (30–134) | 627 |
| Burundi | Rotarix | 4 369 163 | 975 496 | 6008 | 1 609 641 | 30 075 387 | 11 492 083 | 66 (35–97) | 286 |
| Cambodia | Rotasiil | 3 093 143 | 693 787 | 646 | 1 760 655 | 25 019 452 | 17 315 754 | 855 (480–1222) | 1270 |
| Cameroon | Rotarix | 7 659 052 | 1 813 529 | 13 867 | 7 230 672 | 61 673 034 | 39 524 515 | 93 (55–128) | 1375 |
| Central African Republic | Rotavac | 733 714 | 269 033 | 3419 | 421 169 | 6 240 284 | 3 628 809 | 38 (16–68) | 382 |
| Chad | Rotasiil | 2 812 216 | 766 128 | 12 178 | 1 373 576 | 21 493 685 | 12 650 864 | 39 (20–61) | 664 |
| Comoros | Rotasiil | 228 838 | 59 906 | 194 | 154 074 | 1 534 044 | 902 903 | 150 (77–227) | 775 |
| Côte d'Ivoire | Rotateq | 7 677 006 | 2 171 684 | 9889 | 22 224 658 | 122 376 764 | 79 727 547 | 239 (141–336) | 1535 |
| Cuba | Rotasiil | 1 116 234 | 508 721 | 19 | 6 191 925 | 8 998 257 | 8 998 257 | 1681 (98–4332) | 7602 |
| DR Congo | Rotasiil | 27 297 657 | 7 268 535 | 53 013 | 18 669 915 | 177 176 708 | 104 282 116 | 64 (28–98) | 449 |
| Djibouti | Rotarix | 178 289 | 40 238 | 121 | 127 781 | 1 441 579 | 786 340 | 212 (125–304) | 1862 |
| Eritrea | Rotarix | 1 539 050 | 261 276 | 770 | 421 978 | 10 611 584 | 4 155 848 | 188 (91–303) | 583 |
| Ethiopia | Rotarix | 26 078 179 | 5 162 506 | 16 375 | 7 580 039 | 187 304 858 | 72 057 918 | 152 (85–217) | 707 |
| Georgia | Rotarix | 421 489 | 192 937 | 12 | 738 532 | 3 395 328 | 3 395 328 | 3581 (1805–5246) | 3866 |
| Ghana | Rotarix | 8 085 885 | 1 775 985 | 6344 | 6 160 965 | 64 090 055 | 37 213 746 | 192 (110–265) | 1513 |
| Guinea | Rotavac | 2 600 878 | 695 933 | 2897 | 1 178 462 | 18 533 035 | 10 777 108 | 130 (77–184) | 662 |
| Guinea-Bissau | Rotarix | 584 936 | 127 634 | 848 | 320 995 | 4 118 150 | 1 573 583 | 59 (25–96) | 642 |
| Guyana | Rotarix | 141 621 | 30 965 | 46 | 223 693 | 2 335 070 | 2 335 070 | 1736 (1303–2282) | 4529 |
| Haiti | Rotarix | 1 642 083 | 380 229 | 1557 | 609 246 | 27 623 504 | 4 702 378 | 103 (50–157) | 740 |
| Honduras | Rotarix | 1 920 553 | 422 385 | 391 | 2 083 282 | 31 797 350 | 31 797 350 | 2667 (1978–3549) | 2361 |
| India | Rotavac/Rotasiil | 210 355 220 | 46 083 379 | 106 007 | 117 772 708 | 1 761 981 734 | 1 761 981 734 | 588 (428–747) | 1710 |
| Indonesia | Rotasiil | 35 606 711 | 8 613 368 | 11 969 | 41 943 398 | 320 037 163 | 320 037 163 | 866 (463–1306) | 3570 |
| Kenya | Rotarix | 14 630 923 | 3 225 501 | 8877 | 8 233 918 | 117 831 196 | 73 903 636 | 283 (182–383) | 1455 |
| Kiribati | Rotarix | 25 503 | 5 365 | 14 | 23 395 | 406 410 | 406 410 | 1080 (646–1646) | 1587 |
| Kyrgyzstan | Rotavac | 1 219 828 | 466 414 | 232 | 2 902 866 | 10 203 078 | 7 256 136 | 625 (147–1107) | 1078 |
| Laos | Rotasiil | 1 066 947 | 265 434 | 1481 | 2 476 970 | 9 945 424 | 9 205 425 | 177 (99–243) | 2339 |
| Lesotho | Rotarix | 550 446 | 126 078 | 594 | 403 802 | 4 419 060 | 2 325 045 | 133 (79–178) | 1040 |
| Liberia | Rotarix | 1 481 187 | 352 291 | 1278 | 587 456 | 10 701 360 | 4 089 089 | 106 (56–164) | 455 |
| Madagascar | Rotarix | 7 244 209 | 1 622 511 | 6370 | 2 465 080 | 50 490 355 | 19 292 831 | 102 (45–176) | 402 |
| Malawi | Rotarix | 6 138 614 | 1 487 654 | 6147 | 3 486 309 | 42 520 140 | 16 247 338 | 81 (38–121) | 300 |
| Mali | Rotateq | 5 370 633 | 1 528 415 | 7623 | 2 536 699 | 80 689 518 | 23 042 622 | 107 (42–197) | 780 |
| Mauritania | Rotarix | 1 200 458 | 270 702 | 1537 | 870 930 | 9 887 444 | 5 457 313 | 118 (72–166) | 1102 |
| Mongolia | Rotavac | 598 514 | 234 615 | 133 | 976 855 | 4 904 458 | 4 904 458 | 997 (491–1628) | 3694 |
| Mozambique | Rotarix | 10 006 557 | 2 270 541 | 9103 | 4 751 912 | 70 827 392 | 27 063 800 | 97 (49–149) | 382 |
| Myanmar | Rotavac | 8 102 780 | 2 040 478 | 4888 | 4 479 595 | 68 695 435 | 49 153 966 | 351 (351–215) | 1196 |
| Nepal | Rotavac | 4 864 133 | 1 116 376 | 816 | 1 527 722 | 33 107 970 | 19 252 409 | 751 (370–1190) | 729 |
| Nicaragua | Rotarix | 1 092 186 | 384 373 | 460 | 1 507 347 | 18 081 624 | 16 747 246 | 1186 (828–1596) | 2151 |
| Niger | Rotarix | 8 811 793 | 2 098 720 | 19 320 | 3 657 328 | 63 969 987 | 24 443 523 | 43 (21–69) | 364 |
| Nigeria | Rotavac | 35 492 367 | 10 650 771 | 91 934 | 28 485 738 | 342 230 664 | 287 705 916 | 116 (69–169) | 2176 |
| North Korea | Rotavac | 3 272 406 | 1 214 173 | 779 | 2 212 329 | 22 063 877 | 12 830 293 | 467 (231–735) | .. |
| Pakistan | Rotarix | 37 967 843 | 8 098 797 | 23 446 | 12 209 306 | 308 853 983 | 222 737 186 | 343 (165–567) | 1444 |
| Papua New Guinea | Rotavac | 1 607 485 | 441 152 | 1145 | 1 412 872 | 14 741 493 | 14 223 924 | 432 (298–599) | 2500 |
| Moldova | Rotarix | 319 744 | 114 889 | 9 | 827 754 | 2 576 006 | 2 576 006 | 3433 (1681–5255) | 1900 |
| Republic of Congo | Rotarix | 1 536 206 | 348 359 | 1090 | 4 065 847 | 12 290 418 | 12 290 418 | 292 (97–560) | 1528 |
| Rwanda | Rotarix | 3 585 413 | 715 749 | 2539 | 2 031 404 | 24 601 057 | 9 419 779 | 112 (37–207) | 703 |
| São Tomé and Príncipe | Rotateq | 66 017 | 15 146 | 27 | 169 848 | 969 103 | 790 346 | 729 (453–1378) | 1715 |
| Senegal | Rotarix | 5 356 154 | 1 078 428 | 3025 | 3 505 164 | 36 891 487 | 14 096 578 | 134 (53–217) | 953 |
| Sierra Leone | Rotarix | 2 237 531 | 494 152 | 4068 | 1 096 614 | 15 995 382 | 6 111 983 | 51 (26–78) | 505 |
| Solomon Islands | Rotasiil | 168 506 | 39 695 | 35 | 179 991 | 1 363 103 | 1 275 262 | 1116 (604–1768) | 2005 |
| Somalia | Rotasiil | 2 731 238 | 791 252 | 7413 | 926 056 | 19 683 313 | 11 585 139 | 58 (31–90) | 434 |
| South Sudan | Rotasiil | 1 160 690 | 362 015 | 2364 | 615 357 | 8 780 072 | 5 167 745 | 77 (34–135) | 759 |
| Sri Lanka | Rotavac | 2 868 156 | 1 315 209 | 69 | 4 936 522 | 23 848 677 | 23 848 677 | 3938 (1801–6603) | 3835 |
| Sudan | Rotarix | 12 845 274 | 2 833 307 | 14 567 | 8 823 965 | 103 124 331 | 77 184 096 | 184 (121–245) | 2415 |
| Tajikistan | Rotarix | 2 291 676 | 515 367 | 1320 | 995 629 | 18 273 646 | 10 308 538 | 265 (159–371) | 796 |
| Gambia | Rotarix | 818 934 | 167 343 | 533 | 330 064 | 5 663 362 | 2 164 023 | 137 (41–276) | 473 |
| Timor-Leste | Rotasiil | 391 577 | 99 103 | 242 | 763 884 | 3 322 673 | 3 322 673 | 400 (163–726) | 1405 |
| Togo | Rotarix | 2 416 422 | 540 639 | 3061 | 1 293 933 | 16 683 379 | 6 374 873 | 67 (27–110) | 578 |
| Uganda | Rotarix | 15 696 079 | 3 497 987 | 9314 | 7 773 885 | 110 814 276 | 42 343 158 | 146 (76–212) | 580 |
| Ukraine | Rotasiil | 630 398 | 692 799 | 35 | 3 911 990 | 10 290 365 | 10 290 365 | 2609 (812–4 702) | 2072 |
| Tanzania | Rotarix | 22 592 798 | 5 235 956 | 12 673 | 12 913 994 | 154 758 157 | 66 128 551 | 160 (75–255) | 852 |
| Uzbekistan | Rotarix | 5 772 626 | 1 169 250 | 747 | 2 809 315 | 45 978 443 | 45 978 443 | 1979 (532–4606) | 2111 |
| Vietnam | Rotavac | 14 251 963 | 4 522 533 | 1963 | 42 895 925 | 161 291 552 | 161 291 552 | 1930 (410–5174) | 2171 |
| Yemen | Rotarix | 6 182 800 | 1 383 818 | 5075 | 2 560 785 | 62 941 149 | 42 007 560 | 303 (160–471) | 990 |
| Zambia | Rotarix | 6 573 203 | 1 560 484 | 6263 | 4 279 137 | 66 609 961 | 45 525 340 | 259 (196–316) | 1270 |
| Zimbabwe | Rotarix | 4 669 296 | 1 044 688 | 4766 | 2 768 787 | 41 811 906 | 21 871 830 | 159 (109–210) | 1029 |
DALY=disability-adjusted life-year. GDP=gross domestic product.
*
Discounted value.
†
Figures in parentheses show 95% uncertainty intervals (2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of 1000 simulations).