Table 2.

Data inputs and model assumptions

	Point estimate (95% CI)	Source
Population characteristics
Annual global BCG eligible birth cohort	129·1 million	9
Annual all-cause childhood deaths in birth cohort in children aged 0–4 years	6·8 million	11
Annual all-cause childhood deaths in birth cohort in children aged 5–9 years	643 000	11
Annual all-cause childhood deaths in birth cohort in children aged 10–14 years	560 000	11
HIV-negative paediatric male tuberculosis deaths in 2016	110 000 (75 000–151 000)	13
HIV-negative paediatric female tuberculosis deaths in 2016	91 000 (60 000–129 000)	13
Tuberculosis deaths in children younger than 5 years who had received tuberculosis treatment in 2015 (HIV negative)	2690 (1850–4180)	14
Tuberculosis deaths in children younger than 5 years who had not received tuberculosis treatment in 2015 (HIV negative)	161 000 (108 000–223 000)	14
Tuberculosis deaths in children aged 5–15 years who had received tuberculosis treatment in 2015 (HIV negative)	2050 (1510–3100)	14
Tuberculosis deaths in children aged 5–15 years who had not received tuberculosis treatment in 2015 (HIV negative)	31 500 (18 600–51 400)	14
Vaccine characteristics
Vaccine efficacy against tuberculosis death, %	66% (8–88)	3
Vaccine efficacy by age at administration	Constant regardless of age of administration	Assumption
Duration of protection	15 years	21
Waning of protection	None	Assumption