Table 3.
Pooled estimates of HIV incidence from 19 general population studies by age, sex, and region
| Number of estimates | Age (years) | Sex | Region | Study inclusion (excluding assay-based estimates) | HIV incidence events per 100 person-years (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dobra et al (2017),3 Justman et al (2017),6 Vandormael et al (2014),23 Tanser et al (2011),26 Tanser et al (2013),27 Chimbindi et al (2018)29*, unpublished data from Iwuji et al (2018),32 and unpublished data from Schaefer et al (2017)41 | 9 | 15–19 | Female | SADC | All | 4·22 (3·61–4·94) |
| Justman et al (2017)6 and unpublished data from Schaefer et al (2017)41 | 2 | 15–19 | Female | SADC | Sensitivity analysis (excluding studies from uMkhanyakude) | 1·92 (0·51–7·15) |
| Dobra et al (2017),3 Vandormael et al (2014),23 Tanser et al (2011),26 Tanser et al (2013),27 Chimbindi et al (2018),29* and Iwuji et al (2018)32 | 7 | 15–19 | Female | SADC | Sensitivity analysis (uMkhanyakude studies only) | 4·88 (4·64–5·13) |
| Dobra et al (2017),3 Justman et al (2017),6 Vandormael et al (2014),23 Rosenberg et al (2013),25 Tanser et al (2011),26 Tanser et al (2013),27 Akullian et al (2017),28 unpublished data from Iwuji et al (2018),32 Chimbindi et al (2018),29* and unpublished data from Schaefer et al (2017)41† | 14 | 20–24 | Female | SADC | All | 4·36 (3·53–5·39) |
| Justman et al (2017)6 and unpublished data from Schaefer et al (2017)41† | 5 | 20–24 | Female | SADC | Sensitivity analysis (excluding studies from uMkhanyakude) | 1·64 (0·99–2·73) |
| Dobra et al (2017),3 Vandormael et al (2014),23 Rosenberg et al (2013),25 Tanser et al (2011),26 Tanser et al (2013),27 Akullian et al (2017),28 Chimbindi et al (2018),29* and unpublished data from Iwuji et al (2018)32 | 9 | 20–24 | Female | SADC | Sensitivity analysis (uMkhanyakude studies only) | 6·86 (5·93–7·93) |
| Dobra et al (2017),3 Justman et al (2017),6 Vandormael et al (2014),23 Harling et al (2014),24 Tanser et al (2011),26 Tanser et al (2013),27 Akullian et al (2017),28 unpublished data from Iwuji et al (2018),32 and unpublished data from Schaefer et al (2017)41 | 9 | 25–29 | Female | SADC | All | 4·48 (3·19–6·31) |
| Justman et al (2017)6 and unpublished data from Schaefer et al (2017)41 | 2 | 25–29 | Female | SADC | Sensitivity analysis (excluding studies from uMkhanyakude) | 1·52 (1·20–1·93) |
| Dobra et al (2017),3 Vandormael et al (2014),23 Harling et al (2014),24 Tanser et al (2011),26 Tanser et al (2013),27 Akullian et al (2017),28 and unpublished data from Iwuji et al (2018)32 | 7 | 25–29 | Female | SADC | Sensitivity analysis (uMkhanyakude studies only) | 5·71 (4·07–8·00) |
| Dobra et al (2017),3 Justman et al (2017),6 Vandormael et al (2014),23 Tanser et al (2013),27 unpublished data from Iwuji et al (2018),32 and unpublished data from Schaefer et al (2017)41 | 6 | 15–19 | Male | SADC | All | 0·69 (0·52–0·92) |
| Justman et al (2017)6 and unpublished data from Schaefer et al (2017)41 | 2 | 15–19 | Male | SADC | Sensitivity analysis (excluding studies from uMkhanyakude) | 0·43 (0·15–1·25) |
| Dobra et al (2017),3 Vandormael et al (2014),23 Tanser et al (2013),27 and unpublished data from Iwuji et al (2018)32 | 4 | 15–19 | Male | SADC | Sensitivity analysis (uMkhanyakude studies only) | 0·84 (0·74–0·97) |
| Dobra et al (2017),3 Justman et al (2017),6 Vandormael et al (2014),23 Rosenberg et al (2013),25 Tanser et al (2013),27 Akullian et al (2017),28 Baisley et al (2018),30* unpublished data from Iwuji et al (2018),32 and unpublished data from Schaefer et al (2017)41† | 13 | 20–24 | Male | SADC | All | 1·58 (1·18–2·10) |
| Justman et al (2017)6 and unpublished data from Schaefer et al (2017)41† | 5 | 20–24 | Male | SADC | Sensitivity analysis (excluding studies from uMkhanyakude) | 0·56 (0·29–1·08) |
| Dobra et al (2017),3 Vandormael et al (2014),23 Rosenberg et al (2013),25 Tanser et al (2013),27 Akullian et al (2017),28* Baisley et al (2018),30 and unpublished data from Iwuji et al (2018)32 | 8 | 20–24 | Male | SADC | Sensitivity analysis (uMkhanyakude studies only) | 2·43 (1·87–3·15) |
| Dobra et al (2017),3 Justman et al (2017),6 Vandormael et al (2014),23 Tanser et al (2013),27 Akullian et al (2017),28 Baisley et al (2018),30† unpublished data from Iwuji et al (2018),32 and Feldblum et al (2014)48 | 9 | 25–29 | Male | SADC | All | 3·34 (2·58–4·34) |
| Justman et al (2017)6 and unpublished data from Schaefer et al (2017)41 | 2 | 25–29 | Male | SADC | Sensitivity analysis (excluding studies from uMkhanyakude) | 1·58 (0·61–4·13) |
| Dobra et al (2017),3 Vandormael et al (2014),23 Tanser et al (2013),27 Akullian et al (2017),28 Baisley et al (2018),30† and unpublished data from Iwuji et al (2018)32 | 7 | 25–29 | Male | SADC | Sensitivity analysis (uMkhanyakude studies only) | 4·19 (3·48–5·05) |
| Unpublished data from Ruzagira et al (2011),14 Borgdorff et al (2018),20 Biraro et al (2013),36 unpublished data from Grabowski et al (2017),37* Santelli et al (2013),38 Santelli et al (2015)39* | 8 | 15–19 | Female | EAC | All | 0·68 (0·45–1·04) |
| Unpublished data from Ruzagira et al (2011),14 Borgdorff et al (2018),20 Okiria et al (2014),35 Biraro et al (2013),36 unpublished data from Grabowski et al (2017),37* Santelli et al (2013),38 and Santelli et al (2015)39* | 9 | 20–24 | Female | EAC | All | 1·23 (1·01–1·49) |
| Unpublished data from Ruzagira et al (2011),14 Borgdorff et al (2018),20 Okiria et al (2014),35 Biraro et al (2013),36 and unpublished data from Grabowski et al (2017)37* | 6 | 25–29 | Female | EAC | All | 1·07 (0·84–1·36) |
| Unpublished data from Ruzagira et al (2011),14 Biraro et al (2013),20 unpublished data from Grabowski et al (2017),37* Santelli et al (2013),38 and Santelli et al (2015)39* | 7 | 15–19 | Male | EAC | All | 0·21 (0·12–0·37) |
| Unpublished data from Ruzagira et al (2011),14 Borgdorff et al (2018),20 Okiria et al (2014),35 Biraro et al (2013),36 unpublished data from Grabowski et al (2017),37* Santelli et al (2013),38 and Santelli et al (2015)39* | 9 | 20–24 | Male | EAC | All | 0·72 (0·52–1·02) |
| Unpublished data from Ruzagira et al (2011),14 Borgdorff et al (2018),20 Okiria et al (2014),35 Biraro et al (2013),36 and unpublished data from Grabowski et al (2017)37* | 6 | 25–29 | Male | EAC | All | 1·32 (0·93–1·86) |
EAC=East African Community. SADC=Southern African Development Community.
*
Two estimates from this study.
†
Four estimates from this study.