Table 2.
Summary of HRs for predictor variables in the WHO risk models derived with use of Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration data
|
Men |
Women |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main effect | Age interaction term* | Main effect | Age interaction term* | ||
| Laboratory-based models | |||||
| Fatal or non-fatal MI or CHD death | |||||
| Age at baseline per 5 years | 1·43 (1·40–1·47) | .. | 1·67 (1·60–1·73) | .. | |
| Current smoking status | 1·76 (1·68–1·84) | 0·91 (0·89–0·93) | 2·87 (2·64–3·11) | 0·85 (0·81–0·88) | |
| Systolic blood pressure per 20 mm Hg | 1·30 (1·28–1·33) | 0·98 (0·97–0·99) | 1·37 (1·33–1·42) | 0·99 (0·97–1·00) | |
| History of diabetes | 1·90 (1·76–2·04) | 0·94 (0·91–0·97) | 2·92 (2·60–3·28) | 0·89 (0·84–0·94) | |
| Total cholesterol per 1 mmol/L | 1·26 (1·24–1·28) | 0·98 (0·97–0·99) | 1·23 (1·20–1·26) | 0·97 (0·96–0·99) | |
| Baseline survival estimate at 10 years† | 0·954 | .. | 0·989 | .. | |
| Fatal or non-fatal stroke | |||||
| Age at baseline per 5 years | 1·64 (1·58–1·70) | .. | 1·70 (1·63–1·76) | .. | |
| Current smoking status | 1·65 (1·53–1·77) | 0·93 (0·89–0·96) | 2·11 (1·92–2·31) | 0·90 (0·86–0·95) | |
| Systolic blood pressure per 20 mm Hg | 1·56 (1·51–1·61) | 0·96 (0·95–0·97) | 1·51 (1·46–1·56) | 0·95 (0·94–0·97) | |
| History of diabetes | 1·87 (1·67–2·10) | 0·88 (0·83–0·93) | 2·36 (2·06–2·70) | 0·90 (0·84–0·96) | |
| Total cholesterol per 1 mmol/L | 1·03 (1·00–1·06) | 1·01 (0·99–1·02) | 1·03 (0·99–1·06) | 0·99 (0·97–1·01) | |
| Baseline survival estimate at 10 years† | 0·985 | .. | 0·989 | .. | |
| Non-laboratory-based models | |||||
| Fatal or non-fatal MI or CHD death | |||||
| Age at baseline per 5 years | 1·44 (1·41–1·48) | .. | 1·69 (1·63–1·76) | .. | |
| Current smoking status | 1·81 (1·73–1·90) | 0·90 (0·88–0·93) | 2·98 (2·75–3·24) | 0·84 (0·81–0·88) | |
| Systolic blood pressure per 20 mm Hg | 1·31 (1·28–1·33) | 0·98 (0·97–0·99) | 1·40 (1·35–1·44) | 0·98 (0·97–1·00) | |
| BMI per 1 kg/m2 | 1·18 (1·15–1·22) | 0·97 (0·96–0·99) | 1·14 (1·10–1·18) | 0·98 (0·97–1·00) | |
| Baseline survival estimate at 10 years† | 0·954 | .. | 0·989 | .. | |
| Fatal or non-fatal stroke | |||||
| Age at baseline per 5 years | 1·63 (1·57–1·69) | .. | 1·69 (1·63–1·75) | .. | |
| Current smoking status | 1·65 (1·53–1·78) | 0·93 (0·89–0·96) | 2·10 (1·91–2·30) | 0·90 (0·86–0·95) | |
| Systolic blood pressure per 20 mm Hg | 1·58 (1·53–1·62) | 0·96 (0·94–0·97) | 1·54 (1·49–1·60) | 0·95 (0·93–0·96) | |
| BMI per kg/m2 | 1·08 (1·03–1·13) | 0·99 (0·97–1·01) | 1·02 (0·98–1·06) | 1·00 (0·98–1·02) | |
| Baseline survival estimate at 10 years† | 0·985 | .. | 0·989 | .. | |
Data are HRs (95% CI) from sex-specific Cox-proportional hazards models, stratified by study. Log HRs and heterogeneity statistics are given in appendix 1 (p 11). Age was centred at 60 years, systolic blood pressure at 120 mm Hg, total cholesterol at 6 mmol/L, and BMI at 25 kg/m2. Smoking status was coded as current versus other, and history of diabetes as yes versus no. MI=myocardial infarction. CHD=coronary heart disease. BMI=body-mass index. HR=hazard ratio.
Age at baseline.
Baseline survival for each model was estimated by pooling the baseline survival at 10 years across studies with ≥10 years follow-up weighted by number of events by 10 years.