| Transmission dynamics |
Provide robust estimates of the serial interval and generation time |
Detailed exposure and illness onset information from unselected case clusters in line lists, preferably from more than one epicentre |
| Estimate effective reproductive number (Rt) in other cities (i.e. ex-Wuhan) in China and elsewhere |
Epidemic curves for each city by dates of illness onset, preferably stratified by likely source of infection (zoonotic, environmental point source, local case vs imported index case) |
| Clarify the relative importance of pre-symptomatic / asymptomatic transmission |
Detailed reports of transmission events and symptomatic status of infectors; viral shedding data; special studies in households and other closed settings |
| Determine the role of different age groups in transmission, particularly children |
Transmission studies in households and other closed settings; serological studies |
| Determine the relative importance of possible modes of transmission |
Outbreak investigations, in particular for superspreading events; environmental sampling, air sampling and exhaled breath sampling; special studies in households and other closed settings |
| Determine environmental effects on virus survival and transmission |
Virus survival studies in situ vivo and in vitro; environmental sampling studies |
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| Severity |
Provide robust estimates of the risk of fatality of hospitalised cases, by age or other important groupings |
Reports from unselected clinical cohorts of times to death or recovery among resolved cases |
| Provide robust estimates of the risk of fatality of symptomatic cases, by age or other important groupings |
Estimates of incidence from population-wide surveillance of mild cases |
| Identify groups at high risk of severe infection |
Case–control studies; cohort studies |
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Susceptibility
|
Determine if children are infected, and if so, if they are infectious |
Transmission studies in households and other closed settings; serological studies |
| Determine if all infections result in neutralising immunity |
Convalescent serology from mild as well as severe cases, in all age groups |
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| Control measures |
Provide impact estimates of travel restrictions, border screening and quarantine policies on non-local spread |
Modelling analyses of local and global spread of infections |
| Estimate the effects of social distancing measures and other non-pharmaceutical interventions on transmissibility |
Comparative analyses of transmissibility in different locations |
| Predict the most effective measures to reduce the peak burden on healthcare providers and other societal functions |
Modelling studies incorporating healthcare capacity and processes |
