Fig. 1. Conceptual approach of this study.

(A) Microcystis strains were grown at low and at high pCO₂ in laboratory chemostats. (Photo credit: Xing Ji, University of Amsterdam.) (B) Carbon uptake kinetics of Microcystis cells acclimated to low and high pCO₂ were measured, and (C) the plasticity of the measured uptake kinetics was incorporated in a mathematical model. (D) The model was used to predict dynamic changes in population density, uptake kinetics, and inorganic carbon chemistry, and (E) these predictions were validated by the chemostat experiments. (F) The validated model was scaled up to lakes to predict how phenotypic plasticity of Microcystis affects its bloom development in response to rising atmospheric pCO₂. This photo shows a large Microcystis bloom in Lake Taihu, China. (Photo credit: Xing Ji, University of Amsterdam.)