Table 1a. Key probabilities for the base case patient cohort.

	Expert	Novice	TM
Cannulation rate ERCP	0.980629	0.854112	0.917370
Pancreatitis	0.026543	0.037425	0.031984
Bleeding	0.009080	0.015267	0.012173
Perforation	0.007275	0.005294	0.006284
Infection	0.005954	0.019145	0.012549
Cardiopulmonary complications	0.013335	0.013335	0.013335
ERCP Death	0.002551	0.003466	0.003008
No Complications	0.935258	0.906068	0.920663

TM, teleguidance-assisted procedure; ERCP, endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreaography.