Table 1.
Extension of suitable predicted areas of Kalanchoe × houghtonii for each model. The overlap area between present (without considering Human Footprint variable; HF) and respective future models, and the lost and gained area for future predictions with respect to present models are also presented. Note that models were performed with the final occurrence dataset spatially filtered by 20 km (see text for details), which is composed by 392 presence points.
| Model | Predicted area in km2 | Difference with respect to present (model 1) in km2 (%) | Overlap with present (model 1) in km2 (%a; %b) | Lost area in the future with respect to model 1 in km2 (%) | Gained area in the future with respect to model 1 in km2 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Present 20 km filtered (without HF) | 18,682,228 | — | — | — | — |
| 2. Present 20 km filtered (with HF) | 13,989,477 | 4,692,751 (−25.12) | 11,425,388 (61.16; 81.67) | — | — |
| 3. 2070 CCSM (RCP 2.6) | 16,674,408 | 2,007,820 (−10.75) | 14,504,213 (77.64; 86.98) | 417,8015 (22.36) | 2,170,195 (11.62) |
| 4. 2070 CCSM (RCP 8.5) | 11,467,657 | 7,214,571 (−38.62) | 9,124,976 (48.84; 79.57) | 9,557,252 (51.16) | 2,342,681 (12.54) |
| 5. 2070 GFDL (RCP 2.6) | 12,555,141 | 6,127,087 (−32.80) | 10,679,457 (57.16; 85.06) | 8,002,771 (42.84) | 1,875,684 (10.04) |
| 6. 2070 GFDL (RCP 8.5) | 9,611,927 | 9,070,301 (−48.55) | 6,086,913 (32.58; 63.33) | 12,595,315 (67.42) | 3,525,014 (18.87) |
| 7. 2070 MPI (RCP 2.6) | 15,576,057 | 3,106,171 (−16.63) | 13,222,720 (70.78; 84.89) | 5,459,508 (29.22) | 2,353,337 (12.60) |
| 8. 2070 MPI (RCP 8.5) | 8,713,360 | 9,968,868 (−53.36) | 7,308,407 (39.12; 83.88) | 11,373,821 (60.88) | 1,404,953 (7.52) |
aPercentage of overlapped area with respect to the area predicted with model 1.
bPercentage of overlapped area with respect to the area predicted with each assayed model (from 2 to 8).