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. 2020 Feb 5;10(2):e033852. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2019-033852

Table 1.

Estimates of partnership and epidemic parameters

Parameter Value Definition Source
1. Partnership parameters
1/σ+2μ 271.5 days Mean duration steady partnership MSM data
1/ρP0 152.8 days Mean time being single MSM data
1/λ 12.3 days Mean time between AI within steady partnership MSM data
P0 0.360 Fraction without a steady partner MSM data
P1 0.640 Fraction with a steady partner MSM data
πh 0.337 Fraction high actives MSM data
πl 0.663 Fraction low actives MSM data
2. Parameters for condom use, PrEP and time to treatment Source
qs 54.1% Mean condom use steady partner MSM data
qc 62.9% Mean condom use casual partner MSM data
ξ Rate for a high active to start taking PrEP
(calibrated to achieve different % PrEP coverage)
Varied
Mean time from infection to successful antiretroviral treatment for a:
1/γP 0.25 years High active on PrEP 27
1/γh 1.5–3 years High active not on PrEP Varied
1/γl 3.5–7 years Low active 1/γl=2.35/γh
3. Casual sex partner parameters from data not using proxy Source
Mean time until new casual sex partner for a:
1/α0h 10.7 days High active when single MSM data
1/α1h 12.5 days High active when in partnership MSM data
1/α0l 66.5 days Low active when single MSM data
1/α1h 97.9 days Low active when in partnership MSM data
4. Casual sex partner parameters from data using proxy Source
Mean time until new casual partner for a high active with a:
1/α0hh 14.1 days High active when single MSM data
1/α0hl 43.7 days Low active when single MSM data
1/α1hh 15.4 days High active when in partnership MSM data
1/α1hl 66.4 days Low active when in partnership MSM data
Mean time until new casual partner for a low active with a:
1/α0lh 109.3 days High active when single MSM data
1/α0. 169.6 days Low active when single MSM data
1/α1lh 136.1 days High active when in partnership MSM data
1/α1. 348.9 days Low active when in partnership MSM data
5. Parameters from the literature
70% Condom efficiency 28
1/δa 0.24 years Mean time in acute infection stage 18
1/μ 60 years Sexually active lifespan 29 30
Per-act transmission probability
0.1835 Acute stage URAI 16
0.0138 Chronic stage URAI 16
1.48% Overall URAI 31
0.62% Overall UIAI 31
2.39 Of URAI in comparison to UIAI 31
pA 0.1301 Acute stage combined URAI-UIAI 16 31
pC 0.0098 Chronic stage combined URAI-UIAI 16 31

AI, anal intercourse; MSM, men who have sex with men; PrEP, pre-exposure prophylaxis; UIAI, unprotected insertive anal intercourse; URAI, unprotected receptive anal intercourse.