Table 1.
Parameter | Value | Definition | Source |
1. Partnership parameters | |||
271.5 days | Mean duration steady partnership | MSM data | |
152.8 days | Mean time being single | MSM data | |
12.3 days | Mean time between AI within steady partnership | MSM data | |
0.360 | Fraction without a steady partner | MSM data | |
0.640 | Fraction with a steady partner | MSM data | |
0.337 | Fraction high actives | MSM data | |
0.663 | Fraction low actives | MSM data | |
2. Parameters for condom use, PrEP and time to treatment | Source | ||
54.1% | Mean condom use steady partner | MSM data | |
62.9% | Mean condom use casual partner | MSM data | |
Rate for a high active to start taking PrEP (calibrated to achieve different % PrEP coverage) |
Varied | ||
Mean time from infection to successful antiretroviral treatment for a: | |||
0.25 years | High active on PrEP | 27 | |
1.5–3 years | High active not on PrEP | Varied | |
3.5–7 years | Low active | ||
3. Casual sex partner parameters from data not using proxy | Source | ||
Mean time until new casual sex partner for a: | |||
10.7 days | High active when single | MSM data | |
12.5 days | High active when in partnership | MSM data | |
66.5 days | Low active when single | MSM data | |
97.9 days | Low active when in partnership | MSM data | |
4. Casual sex partner parameters from data using proxy | Source | ||
Mean time until new casual partner for a high active with a: | |||
14.1 days | High active when single | MSM data | |
43.7 days | Low active when single | MSM data | |
15.4 days | High active when in partnership | MSM data | |
66.4 days | Low active when in partnership | MSM data | |
Mean time until new casual partner for a low active with a: | |||
109.3 days | High active when single | MSM data | |
169.6 days | Low active when single | MSM data | |
136.1 days | High active when in partnership | MSM data | |
348.9 days | Low active when in partnership | MSM data | |
5. Parameters from the literature | |||
70% | Condom efficiency | 28 | |
0.24 years | Mean time in acute infection stage | 18 | |
60 years | Sexually active lifespan | 29 30 | |
Per-act transmission probability | |||
0.1835 | Acute stage URAI | 16 | |
0.0138 | Chronic stage URAI | 16 | |
1.48% | Overall URAI | 31 | |
0.62% | Overall UIAI | 31 | |
2.39 | Of URAI in comparison to UIAI | 31 | |
0.1301 | Acute stage combined URAI-UIAI | 16 31 | |
0.0098 | Chronic stage combined URAI-UIAI | 16 31 |
AI, anal intercourse; MSM, men who have sex with men; PrEP, pre-exposure prophylaxis; UIAI, unprotected insertive anal intercourse; URAI, unprotected receptive anal intercourse.