Table 2. (A)Average predictions [Simple average of Mean Absolute Errors (MAE)] over all forecasts of the three 2-strain models and their different combinations for the Riyadh province.

(B)Estimated values of the Basic reproduction number (R₀), the Hospital reproduction number (R_H), and the Community reproduction number (R_C)for the three provinces of Saudi Arabia using best model (two strain). The best two strain MERS model is with saturated incidence. The data are given as Mean (95% CI). *The MAE for the three models and their combinations during point prediction of peak week and peak incidence were calculated up-to the peak of the prediction season (11th Week) of the Riyadh province.

A Observed values (Data)	Peak week* (weeks)	Peak maximum* (cases)	Season totals (cases)
	11	45	230
Individual model forecasts
M1	22.8 [19.5]	18.4 [32.94]	478.80 [69.33]
M2	28.7 [19.7]	16.5 [26.25]	216.60 [75.87]
M3	22.1 [11.6]	19.2 [24.83]	222.12 [55.62]
M1 with Superspreaders	44.1 [34.7]	68.9 [32.4]	533.71 [194.5]
Average model forecasts
M1-M2	7.3 [12.1]	42.67 [18.06]	299.73 [69.92]
M1-M3	3.4 [9.5]	37.63 [22.19]	296.18 [68.31]
M2-M3	2.6 [9.4]	53.37 [21.74]	270.47 [42.79]
M1-M2-M3	7.7 [9.6]	39.37 [17.21]	306.90 [77.41]
B Provinces	R0 [Mean (95% CI)]	RH [Mean (95% CI)]	RC [Mean (95% CI)]
Riyadh	2.0706 [2.0629–2.0763]	2.0508 [2.0442–2.0543]	0.5657 [0.5587–0.5709]
Macca	4.5716 [2.8781–6.5899]	2.7239 [0.4281–4.9401]	2.0977 [0.1256–5.7307]
Madina	5.0661 [2.5264–9.3814]	4.7808 [0.7408–9.3132]	1.6506 [0.2116–2.9661]