Table 3. Hindcast prediction of season total MERS-CoV cases for July 2016 to July 2017 and probability of large outbreak.

Prediction based upon the best two-strain model (in terms of season totals forecast) for the three provinces of the Saudi-Arabia.

Two strain models	MERS-CoV cases for July 2015 –July 2016	Predicted cases of MERS-CoV for the period July 2016 –July 2017 (Mean (95% CI))	Probability of larger outbreak ((No. of samples above 2015/2016 cases)/(total samples))
Riyadh (M3)	230	248.1724 (213.7383–268.26)	0.7150
Macca (M1)	20	69.0813(59.7604–78.9765)	1
Madina (M3)	10	7.5268 (7.5087–7.5598)	0