Table 2.

Model projections of the impact of PrEP on HCV prevalence, incidence and the relative change in new HIV and HCV infections for 12·5% and 25·0% PrEP coverage with and without risk compensation. The risk compensation scenario assumes condom use among PrEP users reduces from 68% to 34%. *PrEP users in ‘No PrEP’ scenario are assumed to be representative of MSM who are eligible for PrEP in 2018.

PrEP scenario	Relative change (%) in new infections from 2018 to 2030 compared to no PrEP scenario		HCV prevalence by 2030				HCV Incidence by 2030 (per 100 person-years)
	HIV	HCV	All MSM	HIV positive	On PrEP*	HIV negative not on PrEP	All MSM	HIV positive	On PrEP*	HIV negative not on PrEP
No PrEP	0.0%	0.0%	1.2%	2.6%	2.8%	1.2%	0.10	0.64	0.29	0.10
12·5% coverage of PrEP
Scenario S0 – no risk compensation	−44.7%	−1.0%	1.2%	2.3%	2.1%	1.0%	0.10	0.58	0.17	0.09
Scenario S1 – condom use in PrEP users falls from 68% to 34%	−40.5%	42.5%	1.5%	2.9%	3.0%	1.2%	0.17	0.81	0.39	0.13
25·0% coverage of PrEP
Scenario S0 – no risk compensation	−67.3%	−1.6%	1.2%	2.2%	2.1%	0.8%	0.10	0.56	0.17	0.07
Scenario S1 – condom use in PrEP users falls from 68% to 34%	−63.1%	80.7%	1.8%	3.3%	3.3%	1.2%	0.23	0.99	0.47	0.15