Table 3.
Parameters and sources
| Parameter | Value | Data source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| PrEP efficacy | 90% | Assumption, Partners Demonstration Project 21 | Optimistic, intended to be consistent with optimistic ART and VMMC assumptions |
| PrEP adherence | 90% | Assumption, 22, 23 | Optimistic, intended to be consistent with optimistic ART and VMMC assumptions |
| PrEP coverage | S‐shaped curve starting at 0% coverage in 2017 and plateauing at 50% coverage by 2030 | Assumption | See Supporting Information File S4 for an illustration of the coverage levels over time. |
| Reduction of infectiousness with ART to without ART | 0.25 from beginning of model until 2010; linear interpolation from 0.25 in 2010 to 0.1 in 2020; linear interpolation from 0.1 in 2020 to 0.05 in 2030 | Assumption, based on the achievements of the UNAIDS Fast‐Track targets | This parameter represents the effect of viral suppression on transmission of HIV; a value of 0.25 indicates that the population is 75% virally suppressed. |
| ART scale‐up, base (90‐90‐90 by 2020, Fast‐Track) scenario | Linear interpolation from 2017 levels (See Table S1.2 in Supporting Information File S1) to 81% coverage in 2020, followed by linear interpolation from 81% coverage in 2020 to 90% coverage in 2030. | Coverage values through 2017 are estimated in AIM based on programme service statistics provided and validated as part of the annual AIM file update process. After 2017, assumption, based on the achievements of the UNAIDS Fast‐Track targets | This parameter combines the 90% testing and 90% on treatment targets. 90% x 90% = 81%. The targets for 2030 are 95% and 95%; 95% x 95% = 90%. |
| ART scale‐up, constant coverage scenario | Keep ART coverage constant at 2017 levels | Assumption | |
| ART scale‐up, 90‐90‐90 by 2030 scenario | Linear interpolation from 2017 levels (See Table S1.2 in Supporting Information File S1) to 81% coverage in 2030. | Assumption, based on delayed achievement of the Fast‐Track targets | This parameter combines the 90% testing and 90% on treatment targets. 90% x 90% = 81%. |
| VMMC efficacy | 60% | 24, 25, 26 | Reduction in male susceptibility to HIV infection when circumcised |
| VMMC scale‐up, base (90 by 2020, Fast‐Track) scenario | Linear interpolation from 2017 levels (See Table S1.2 in Supporting Information File S1) to 90% coverage by 2020; 90% coverage after 2030. | Prior to 2017, values are extracted from DHS and AIS through http://statcompiler.com. After 2017, assumption based on UNAIDS VMMC targets. | |
| VMMC scale‐up, constant coverage scenario | Keep male circumcision (MC) coverage constant at 2017 levels | Assumption | |
| VMMC scale‐up, 90 by 2030 scenario | Linear interpolation from 2017 levels (See Table S1.2 in Supporting Information File S1) to 90% coverage by 2030 | Assumption, based on delayed achievement of the Fast‐Track targets |