Table 4.
Absolute risk of subsequent fracture during follow-up period, based on sex, age, and site of initial fracture
| Site of initial fracture | Cumulative risk of subsequent fracture (95% confidence interval) | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-year | 3-years | 5-years | |
| Women | |||
| 50–59 years | |||
| Any | 0.082 (0.068–0.097) | 0.095 (0.080–0.111) | 0.105 (0.089–0.123) |
| Proximal | 0.056 (0.037–0.080) | 0.079 (0.055–0.108) | 0.100 (0.072–0.133) |
| Distal | 0.094 (0.076–0.114) | 0.103 (0.084–0.123) | 0.108 (0.089–0.130) |
| 60–69 years | |||
| Any | 0.079 (0.068–0.091) | 0.107 (0.094–0.121) | 0.127 (0.112–0.143) |
| Proximal | 0.068 (0.053–0.085) | 0.105 (0.085–0.126) | 0.139 (0.115–0.164) |
| Distal | 0.088 (0.072–0.105) | 0.109 (0.091–0.128) | 0.120 (0.101–0.140) |
| 70–79 years | |||
| Any | 0.068 (0.060–0.078) | 0.109 (0.098–0.121) | 0.143 (0.130–0.157) |
| Proximal | 0.058 (0.048–0.069) | 0.105 (0.092–0.120) | 0.144 (0.128–0.162) |
| Distal | 0.087 (0.071–0.105) | 0.116 (0.097–0.137) | 0.140 (0.119–0.163) |
| 80+ years | |||
| Any | 0.067 (0.060–0.074) | 0.116(0.107–0.125) | 0.145 (0.135–0.155) |
| Proximal | 0.063 (0.056–0.071) | 0.115 (0.105–0.125) | 0.141 (0.130–0.153) |
| Distal | 0.082 (0.066–0.101) | 0.121 (0.100–0.143) | 0.159 (0.135–0.185) |
| Men | |||
| 50–59 years | |||
| Any | 0.099 (0.076–0.126) | 0.116 (0.090–0.145) | 0.127 (0.099–0.158) |
| Proximal | 0.073(0.046–0.108) | 0.092 (0.061–0.131) | 0.115 (0.078–0.160) |
| Distal | 0.126 (0.090–0.168) | 0.140 (0.101–0.185) | 0.140 (0.101–0.185) |
| 60–69 years | |||
| Any | 0.068 (0.052–0.086) | 0.091 (0.072–0.113) | 0.101 (0.081–0.125) |
| Proximal | 0.051 (0.034–0.072) | 0.078 (0.057–0.104) | 0.092 (0.067–0.121) |
| Distal | 0.099 (0.068–0.137) | 0.115 (0.082–0.156) | 0.120 (0.085–0.161) |
| 70–79 years | |||
| Any | 0.053 (0.040–0.067) | 0.088 (0.071–0.107) | 0.108 (0.089–0.130) |
| Proximal | 0.052 (0.038–0.068) | 0.086 (0.067–0.107) | 0.108 (0.087–0.132) |
| Distal | 0.057 (0.030–0.096) | 0.096(0.058–0.145) | 0.111 (0.069–0.164) |
| 80+ years | |||
| Any | 0.051 (0.041–0.062) | 0.088 (0.075–0.103) | 0.110 (0.095–0.127) |
| Proximal | 0.049 (0.039–0.060) | 0.084 (0.070–0.099) | 0.104 (0.088–0.122) |
| Distal | 0.067 (0.037–0.108) | 0.125 (0.081–0.179) | 0.156 (0.105–0.216) |
Note: Fractures were classified as hip, vertebral, and major as proximal. Major fractures included pelvis, distal femur, proximal tibia, ribs and sternum, and proximal humerus. Distal fractures included all remaining fractures, excluding those of the face, head or digits