Table 3:
Cross-validation using leave-one-out analysis
| Observed HR for overall survival (95% CI) |
Predicted HR for overall survival (95% CI) |
Observed HR within prediction 95% CI? |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Prespecified full set (12 contrasts) | |||
| ALTTO (lapatinib vs TL) 9 | 0·69 (0 ·56–0·84) | 0·71 (0·57–0·88) | Yes |
| ALTTO (trastuzumab vs T→L) 9 | 1·16 (0·94–1·43) | 0·94 (0·72–1·24) | Yes |
| BCIRG 006 (ACTvs ACTH) 4 | 0·62 (0·48–0 ·79) | 0·72 (0·57–0·91) | Yes |
| BCIRG 006 (ACTvs TCH) 4 | 0·81 (0·63–1·03) | 0·82 (0·64–1·06) | Yes |
| E2198 26 | 1·25 (0·68–2·29) | 1·21 (0·64–2·30) | Yes |
| HERA 2 | 0·74 (0·64–0·86) | 0·79 (0·68–0·93) | Yes |
| HORG 7 | 1·45 (0·57–3·67) | 0·66 (0·32–1·34) | No |
| NCCTG N9831 (Avs B [C open]) 3,25 | 0·79 (0·62–1·00) | 0·84 (0·66–1·06) | Yes |
| NCCTG N9831 (Avs B) 3,25 | 0·75 (0·58–0·96) | 0·72 (0·56–0·93) | Yes |
| NCCTG N9831 (Avs B [C Closed]) 3,25 | 0·73 (0·46–1·16) | 0·58 (0·38–0·91) | Yes |
| NSABP B-31 3 | 0·66 (0·54–0·79) | 0·59 (0·47–0·75) | Yes |
| PACS04 27 | 0·81 (0·55–1·19) | 0·78 (0·53–1·15) | Yes |
| Reduced set (11 contrasts) | |||
| ALTTO (Lvs TL) 9 | 0·69 (0 ·56–0·84) | 0·70 (0·59–0·84) | Yes |
| ALTTO (trastuzumab vs T→L) 9 | 1·16 (0·94–1·43) | 0·95 (0·77–1·17) | Yes |
| BCIRG 006 (ACTvs ACTH) 4 | 0·62 (0 ·48–0·79) | 0·71 (0·60–0·86) | Yes |
| BCIRG 006 (ACTvs TCH) 4 | 0·81 (0·63–1·03) | 0·82 (0·66–1·01) | Yes |
| E2198 26 | 1·25 (0·68–2·29) | 1·22 (0·71–2·08) | Yes |
| HERA 2 | 0·74 (0·64–0·86) | 0·79 (0·69–0·90) | Yes |
| NCCTG N9831 (Avs B [C open]) 3,25 | 0·79 (0·62–1·00) | 0·84 (0·69–1·02) | Yes |
| NCCTG N9831 (Avs B) 3,25 | 0·75 (0·58–0·96) | 0·72 (0·58–0·88) | Yes |
| NCCTG N9831 (Avs B [C Closed]) 3,25 | 0·73 (0·46–1·16) | 0·58 (0·41–0·81) | Yes |
| NSABP B-31 3 | 0·66 (0 ·54–0·79) | 0·58 (0·49–0·70) | Yes |
| PACS04 27 | 0·81 (0·55–1·19) | 0·78 (0·56–1·07) | Yes |
HR=hazard ratio. ACT=doxorubicin, cyclophosphamide, and docetaxel. ACTH=doxorubicin, cyclophosphamide, docetaxel, and trastuzumab. TCH=docetaxel, carboplatin, and trastuzumab. T→L=trastuzumab followed by lapatinib.
TL=trastuzumab plus lapatinib.