Skip to main content
. 2020 Jan 22;57(1):267–296. doi: 10.1007/s13524-019-00848-5

Table 2.

Characteristics of the fertility transition in 83 countries

Pattern of Stopping Childbearing Changes in the Distribution of Birth Intervals
Country Most Recent TFR Drop in PPR4–8 Compared With PPR0–4 Final Ratio of (PPR0–PPR4) to (PPR4–PPR8) Increase in Median Closed Interval (months) Most recent Median Closed Interval (months) Ratio of Change in 60b60 to Change in B(60) Ratio of Change in B(30) to Change in 30b30
East Africa
 Burundi 5.5 Larger Convex 3–6 <42 Rises Rises
 Comoros 4.3 Larger Convex 3–6 <42 Drops Drops
 Ethiopia 3.9 Similar Convex <3 <42 Drops Rises
 Kenya 3.7 Larger Concave 6–12 <42 Constant Drops
 Madagascar 4.2 Similar Concave 6–12 <42 Constant Drops
 Malawi 4.6 Larger Convex 6–12 42–48 Rises Drops
 Mozambique 5.7 Similar Convex 3–6 <42 Rises Drops
 Rwanda 3.6 Larger Concave 6–12 <42 Constant Drops
 Tanzania 5.0 Similar Convex 3–6 <42 Rises Rises
 Uganda 5.5 Larger Convex 3–6 <42 Rises Rises
 Zambia 4.7 Larger Convex 6–12 <42 Rises Drops
 Zimbabwe 4.4 Larger Convex 12+ 48+ Rises Drops
Middle Africa
 Angola 6.0 Similar Convex <3 <42 Drops Rises
 Cameroon 4.8 Similar Convex 3-6 <42 Rises Rises
 Central African Republic 6.7 Similar Convex <3 <42 Constant Rises
 Chad 6.2 Larger Convex <3 <42 Rises Rises
 Congo (Democratic Republic) 5.6 Similar Convex <3 <42 Drops Rises
 Congo (Republic) 4.7 Similar Convex <3 42–48 Constant Rises
 Gabon 3.8 Similar Concave 6–12 <42 Constant Rises
 São Tomé and Principe 4.4 Similar Convex <3 42–48 Constant Rises
Southern Africa
 Lesotho 3.0 Similar Concave 12+ 48+ Rises Rises
 Namibia 3.3 Similar Concave 12+ 48+ Constant Drops
 South Africa 2.8 Smaller Very concave 12+ 48+ Constant Rises
 Swaziland 4.3 Similar Convex 3–6 <42 Constant Rises
West Africa
 Benin 5.1 Larger Convex 6–12 <42 Constant Rises
 Burkina Faso 5.8 Larger Convex 3–6 <42 Constant Drops
 Côte d’Ivoire 4.8 Larger Convex 6–12 <42 Rises Drops
 The Gambia 4.7 Smaller Convex <3 <42 Drops Rises
 Ghana 4.0 Larger Convex 6-12 42–48 Constant Rises
 Guinea 5.5 Similar Convex <3 <42 Constant Rises
 Liberia 4.1 Larger Convex 12+ 42–48 Rises Drops
 Mali 6.7 Larger Convex 3–6 <42 Rises Drops
 Niger 7.7 Similar Convex <3 <42 Rises Rises
 Nigeria 4.7 Similar Convex <3 <42 Constant Rises
 Senegal 4.7 Larger Convex 3–6 <42 Rises Rises
 Sierra Leone 4.0 Similar Convex <3 <42 Drops Rises
 Togo 4.3 Larger Convex 3–6 <42 Constant Rises
Eastern Europe and Former USSR
 Albania 1.9 Smaller Very concave <3 42–48 Drops Rises
 Armenia 1.6 Smaller Very concave 6–12 <42 Drops Rises
 Azerbaijan 2.2 Smaller Very concave <3 <42 Drops Rises
 Kazakhstan 1.9 Smaller Concave <3 <42 Drops Rises
 Kyrgyz Republic 3.1 Similar Concave 6-12 <42 Constant Drops
 Moldova 1.8 Smaller Very concave 3-6 48+ Drops Rises
 Tajikistan 3.4 Smaller Concave <3 <42 Drops Rises
 Ukraine 1.4 Similar Very concave 3-6 48+ Drops Rises
 Uzbekistan 4.6 Larger Concave <3 <42 Drops Rises
Caribbean
 Dominican Republic 2.3 Similar Very concave 12+ 42–48 Drops Large drop
 Haiti 2.9 Similar Concave 6–12 42–48 Rises Drops
 Trinidad and Tobago 2.8 Similar Concave 6–12 <42 Rises Drops
Central America
 Costa Rica 3.4 Larger Concave 12+ 42-48 Rises Large drop
 El Salvador 2.1 Smaller Very concave 12+ 42-48 Drops Drops
 Guatemala 3.0 Similar Very concave 6–12 <42 Drops Drops
 Honduras 2.7 Similar Very concave 12+ 42-48 Drops Drops
 Mexico 4.5 Larger Convex 3–6 <42 Rises Drops
 Nicaragua 3.3 Similar Very concave 6–12 <42 Drops Drops
South America
 Bolivia 2.9 Similar Very concave 6–12 <42 Drops Drops
 Brazil 3.1 Similar Very concave 6–12 <42 Constant Large drop
 Colombia 2.0 Smaller Very concave 12+ 48+ Drops Large drop
 Ecuador 3.2 Larger Very concave 12+ <42 Constant Drops
 Guyana 2.4 Smaller Very concave 12+ 42-48 Constant Large drop
 Paraguay 2.2 Similar Very concave 12+ 48+ Constant Drops
 Peru 2.6 Smaller Very concave 12+ 48+ Constant Large drop
Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
 Egypt 3.3 Similar Concave 6–12 <42 Constant Large drop
 Jordan 4.2 Larger Convex 6–12 <42 Rises Large drop
 Morocco 2.8 Similar Convex 12+ <42 Rises Large drop
 Sudan (North) 5.7 Similar Convex 3–6 <42 Constant Large drop
 Tunisia 4.6 Similar Convex 3–6 <42 Drops Drops
 Turkey 2.5 Smaller Very concave 6–12 <42 Drops Drops
 Yemen 3.6 Larger Convex 6–12 <42 Drops Large drop
South Asia
 Afghanistan 5.1 Larger Convex <3 <42 Drops Rises
 Bangladesh 2.4 Similar Very concave 12+ 48+ Drops Drops
 India 2.2 Smaller Very concave <3 <42 Drops Rises
 Maldives 2.5 Smaller Very concave 6–12 48+ Drops Rises
 Nepal 2.4 Smaller Very concave 3–6 <42 Drops Rises
 Pakistan 4.3 Larger Convex <3 <42 Drops Rises
 Sri Lanka 3.2 Similar Concave 3–6 <42 Constant Rises
Southeast Asia
 Cambodia 2.4 Similar Very concave 6–12 42–48 Drops Rises
 Indonesia 2.5 Smaller Very concave 12+ 48+ Rises Drops
 Myanmar 2.1 Smaller Concave <3 48+ Drops Rises
 Philippines 2.7 Similar Very concave 6–12 <42 Constant Drops
 Thailand 3.8 Larger Concave 6–12 <42 Constant Drops
 Timor-Leste 4.0 Larger Convex <3 <42 Drops Rises
 Vietnam 2.4 Smaller Very concave 6–12 42–48 Drops Rises