Table 4.

 Cross-validated performance of models for prediction of final eGFR being <30 or <45 ml min⁻¹ [1.73 m]⁻², overall and stratified by albuminuric status at study day

Model	Basic covariates			Basic covariates + ACR			Full covariates
	ΔLoglik	AUC (95% PI)	Λ	ΔLoglik	AUC (95% PI)	Λ	ΔLoglik	AUC (95% PI)	Λ
Final eGFR <30 (n = 1627, 41 events)
Clinical covariates only	–	0.876 (0.858, 0.890)	2.18	–	0.911 (0.895, 0.924)	3.23	–	0.929 (0.912, 0.943)	3.93
Serum biomarkers	35.3	0.953 (0.940, 0.965)	4.06	11.2	0.952 (0.939, 0.965)	4.08	0.8	0.940 (0.920, 0.956)	4.28
Urine biomarkers	3.2	0.879 (0.852, 0.901)	2.52	−13.8	0.892 (0.866, 0.913)	2.84	−0.2	0.929 (0.912, 0.943)	3.92
Final eGFR <30 in normo-/microalbuminuric (n = 1571, 18 events)
Clinical covariates only	–	0.788 (0.737, 0.836)	1.32	–	0.793 (0.740, 0.845)	1.43	–	0.818 (0.757, 0.873)	2.10
Serum biomarkers	9.3	0.861 (0.807, 0.909)	2.20	7.3	0.856 (0.799, 0.908)	2.14	−2.6	0.815 (0.760, 0.871)	2.20
Urine biomarkers	−0.3	0.786 (0.732, 0.840)	1.31	−1.2	0.787 (0.732, 0.840)	1.32	0.3	0.819 (0.761, 0.873)	2.10
Final eGFR <30 in macroalbuminuric (n = 56, 23 events)
Clinical covariates only	–	0.750 (0.692, 0.809)	1.33	–	0.801 (0.743, 0.852)	1.95	–	0.771 (0.697, 0.843)	2.56
Serum biomarkers	4.3	0.830 (0.755, 0.896)	2.31	1.6	0.835 (0.760, 0.895)	2.33	−8.6	0.764 (0.685, 0.839)	2.46
Urine biomarkers	−1.0	0.770 (0.697, 0.835)	1.45	−4.7	0.765 (0.686, 0.833)	1.41	−7.6	0.758 (0.677, 0.834)	2.24
Final eGFR <45 (n = 1573, 74 events)
Clinical covariates only	–	0.840 (0.830, 0.849)	1.54	–	0.889 (0.881, 0.897)	2.31	–	0.901 (0.891, 0.911)	2.68
Serum biomarkers	33.6	0.899 (0.887, 0.911)	2.49	8.3	0.907 (0.894, 0.918)	2.59	5.4	0.914 (0.901, 0.926)	2.96
Urine biomarkers	15.3	0.879 (0.866, 0.890)	1.98	−5.5	0.890 (0.877, 0.902)	2.22	−0.3	0.901 (0.891, 0.912)	2.68
Final eGFR <45 in normo-/microalbuminuric (n = 1529, 53 events)
Clinical covariates only	–	0.857 (0.843, 0.870)	1.70	–	0.866 (0.854, 0.878)	1.93	–	0.876 (0.858, 0.891)	2.33
Serum biomarkers	16.3	0.891 (0.877, 0.904)	2.31	9.9	0.890 (0.875, 0.904)	2.30	5.0	0.891 (0.872, 0.908)	2.63
Urine biomarkers	−2.4	0.852 (0.834, 0.869)	1.71	−9.7	0.849 (0.831, 0.867)	1.75	−1.6	0.872 (0.851, 0.890)	2.34
Final eGFR <45 in macroalbuminuric (n = 44, 21 events)
Clinical covariates only	–	0.538 (0.429, 0.640)	0.17	–	0.529 (0.416, 0.634)	0.19	–	0.561 (0.472, 0.644)	0.25
Serum biomarkers	−10.1	0.510 (0.400, 0.627)	0.07	−9.3	0.512 (0.395, 0.634)	0.07	−30.1	0.536 (0.437, 0.634)	0.22
Urine biomarkers	−2.7	0.541 (0.422, 0.646)	0.18	−0.1	0.540 (0.428, 0.658)	0.17	−94.1	0.479 (0.379, 0.578)	−0.35

Basic and full clinical covariates are listed in the footnotes to Table 2

ΔLoglik, difference in test log-likelihood (natural logarithm) with respect to the model containing only clinical covariates; PI, posterior uncertainty interval; Λ, expected information for discrimination in bits