Fig. 1.

Mean monthly price† (R$/kg) of unprocessed or minimally processed foods and processed culinary ingredients (), processed foods () and ultra-processed foods () for the period from 1995 to 2017 and forecast up to 2030‡. Brazil§, 1995–2030. Observations: the dashed segment of each group represents projected price estimates. R²: 0·89 (unprocessed or minimally processed foods and processed culinary ingredients), 0·87 (processed foods), 0·55 (ultra-processed foods). †Real price from January 1995 to December 2017, deflated to represent December 2017 values. ‡From 2017 to 2030, estimated through fractional polynomial models. §Based on a novel data set created by combining 2008–2009 Household Budget Survey data and information from the National System of Consumer Price Indexes. For further information, see the ‘Methods’ section