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. 2020 Mar 5;3(3):e200409. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.0409

Figure. Incremental Cost-effectiveness Ratios for Biomarker-Informed Lung Screening Eligibility Based on Exploratory Cost-effectiveness Analysis.

Figure.

The reference scenario defines eligibility using a risk prediction model incorporating smoking and demographic information. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) are shown as a function of (1) the percentage of future ever-smoking lung cancer cases classified as screening-eligible and (2) the per-person biomarker testing cost. The x-axis shows the percentage of ever-smoking lung cancer cases classified as screening-eligible (54% based on the US Preventive Services Task Force [USPSTF] guidelines, 62% based on smoking-model risk-based eligibility, and increases up to 80% based on hypothetical biomarker-informed eligibility). Individual curves represent ICERs based on hypothetical per-person biomarker costs ranging from $5 to $300. The dotted horizontal line indicates an ICER willingness-to-pay threshold of $50 000 per life-year gained.