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. 2020 Mar 6;10:4223. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-61046-7

Figure 2.

Figure 2

The nature of relationships between age, stem cell number, mutation rate and cancer incidence by the CIS model. (A) Similar to the bad luck model, there is a threshold age at which the incidence transits from near zero to near 100%. Saturation of cumulative incidence happens only when the incidence approaches 100%. The threshold age is affected by the stem cell number (A,B) as well as the mutation rate (C,D). The threshold age and the slope at I50 holds an inverse relationship (E) similar to the bad luck model. (F) For the parameter range in which the threshold lies much beyond the lifespan, the log-log relationship between stem cell number and cumulative incidence is linear with a slope > = 1. For A and B, p = 5.603 10−9, n ranges from (curves right to left respectively) 106 to 1010.5. For C and D, n = 1.785 108. p ranges from (curves left to right) 10−6.5 to 10−10.5. Growth rates progress linearly in the general form, gi = 0.007 (i + 1), where i = 0 to k and k = 5. Here, Δg = 0.007. k = 5 for all.