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. 2020 Mar 6;10:4223. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-61046-7

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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The nature of relationships between age, stem cell number, mutation rate and cancer incidence predicted by the CDS model. In this model the cumulative incidence can saturate much below 100% depending upon the distribution of Δg. The age incidence curve at different n (A,B) and different mutation rates (C,D) show an early saturating trend rather than a threshold phenomenon. The log-log plot between stem cell number and life time incidence may be saturating or linear with a slope < = 1 (E). With a reduction in the mean Δg, the cell number incidence curve saturates early (F). All parameters similar to Fig. 2.