Table 1.

Effects of prison vs. probation sentence on violent crime, by time since sentence

	Entire Sample (n=111,110)	No Baseline Violent Offense (n = 79,337)	Baseline Violent Offense (n = 31,762)
A. Outcome: Ever Arrested for Violent Crime
1 year since sentence	−0.072	−0.054	−0.081
	(−0.089 , −0.056)	(−0.073 , −0.035)	(−0.103 , −0.059)
	p<0.001	p<0.001	p<0.001
3 years since sentence	−0.099	−0.082	−0.142
	(−0.125 , −0.073)	(−0.113 , −0.051)	(−0.175 , −0.109)
	p<0.001	p<0.001	p<0.001
5 years since sentence	−0.084	−0.046	−0.162
	(−0.114 , −0.054)	(−0.081 , −0.010)	(−0.201 , −0.124)
	p<0.001	p=0.013	p<0.001
B. Outcome: Ever Convicted of Violent Crime
1 year since sentence	−0.012	−0.010	−0.022
	(−0.021 , −0.004)	(−0.019 , −0.001)	(−0.034 , −0.010)
	p=0.004	p=0.034	p<0.001
3 years since sentence	−0.037	−0.039	−0.069
	(−0.055 , −0.020)	(−0.058 , −0.020)	(−0.092 , −0.045)
	p<0.001	p<0.001	p<0.001
5 years since sentence	−0.024	−0.025	−0.061
	(−0.045 , −0.003)	(−0.049 , −0.001)	(−0.090 , −0.032)
	p=0.026	p=0.042	p<0.001

Each cell contains one unstandardized coefficient from a different 2-Stage Least Squares regression model, the coefficient’s 95% confidence interval, and its p-value (two tailed test). Coefficients represent the change in the probability of one or more arrests or convictions for a violent crime during follow-up due to prison vs. probation sentence at baseline, holding sentence length constant at 24 months. Full model results, model fit statistics, and coefficient z-statistics in Supplementary Table 7.