Table 2.

Effects of prison vs. probation sentence on violent crime, by time since release

	Entire Sample		No Baseline Violent Offense		Baseline Violent Offense
	Prison vs. Probation Change in Probability	Sample size	Prison vs. Probation Change in Probability	Sample size	Prison vs. Probation Change in Probability	Sample size
A. Outcome: Ever Arrested for Violent Crime
1 year since release	−0.005	106,926	−0.008	78,856	−0.013	28,070
	(−0.025 , 0.014)		(−0.033 , 0.018)		(−0.041 , 0.015)
	p=0.591		p=0.547		p=0.350
3 years since release	0.006	104,605	−0.003	78,425	−0.020	26,180
	(−0.024 , 0.035)		(−0.041 , 0.036)		(−0.062 , 0.021)
	p=0.706		p=0.888		p=0.337
5 years since release	0.012	100,445	0.036	76,748	−0.042	23,697
	(−0.028 , 0.053)		(−0.017 , 0.089)		(−0.094 , 0.010)
	p=0.545		p=0.180		p=0.116
B. Outcome: Ever Convicted of Violent Crime
1 year since release	0.001	108,404	0.006	79,094	−0.005	29,310
	(−0.010 , 0.012)		(−0.007 , 0.019)		(−0.022 , 0.012)
	p=0.822		p=0.380		p=0.557
3 years since release	0.004	107,425	−0.003	78,949	−0.023	28,476
	(−0.015 , 0.024)		(−0.026 , 0.021)		(−0.052 , 0.006)
	p=0.655		p=0.832		p=0.123
5 years since release	0.017	105,799	0.002	78,667	−0.017	27,132
	(−0.007 , 0.040)		(−0.027 , 0.032)		(−0.051 , 0.017)
	p=0.157		p=0.870		p=0.339

Each cell contains one unstandardized coefficient from a different 2-Stage Least Squares regression model, the coefficient’s 95% confidence interval, and its p-value (two tailed test). Coefficients represent the change in the probability of one or more arrests or convictions for a violent crime during follow-up due to prison vs. probation sentence at baseline, holding sentence length constant at 24 months. Full model results, model fit statistics, and coefficient z-statistics in Supplementary Table 8.