Table 2.
Entire Sample |
No Baseline Violent Offense |
Baseline Violent Offense |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prison vs. Probation Change in Probability | Sample size | Prison vs. Probation Change in Probability | Sample size | Prison vs. Probation Change in Probability | Sample size | |
A. Outcome: Ever Arrested for Violent Crime | ||||||
1 year since release | −0.005 | 106,926 | −0.008 | 78,856 | −0.013 | 28,070 |
(−0.025 , 0.014) | (−0.033 , 0.018) | (−0.041 , 0.015) | ||||
p=0.591 | p=0.547 | p=0.350 | ||||
3 years since release | 0.006 | 104,605 | −0.003 | 78,425 | −0.020 | 26,180 |
(−0.024 , 0.035) | (−0.041 , 0.036) | (−0.062 , 0.021) | ||||
p=0.706 | p=0.888 | p=0.337 | ||||
5 years since release | 0.012 | 100,445 | 0.036 | 76,748 | −0.042 | 23,697 |
(−0.028 , 0.053) | (−0.017 , 0.089) | (−0.094 , 0.010) | ||||
p=0.545 | p=0.180 | p=0.116 | ||||
B. Outcome: Ever Convicted of Violent Crime | ||||||
1 year since release | 0.001 | 108,404 | 0.006 | 79,094 | −0.005 | 29,310 |
(−0.010 , 0.012) | (−0.007 , 0.019) | (−0.022 , 0.012) | ||||
p=0.822 | p=0.380 | p=0.557 | ||||
3 years since release | 0.004 | 107,425 | −0.003 | 78,949 | −0.023 | 28,476 |
(−0.015 , 0.024) | (−0.026 , 0.021) | (−0.052 , 0.006) | ||||
p=0.655 | p=0.832 | p=0.123 | ||||
5 years since release | 0.017 | 105,799 | 0.002 | 78,667 | −0.017 | 27,132 |
(−0.007 , 0.040) | (−0.027 , 0.032) | (−0.051 , 0.017) | ||||
p=0.157 | p=0.870 | p=0.339 |
Each cell contains one unstandardized coefficient from a different 2-Stage Least Squares regression model, the coefficient’s 95% confidence interval, and its p-value (two tailed test). Coefficients represent the change in the probability of one or more arrests or convictions for a violent crime during follow-up due to prison vs. probation sentence at baseline, holding sentence length constant at 24 months. Full model results, model fit statistics, and coefficient z-statistics in Supplementary Table 8.