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. 2020 Mar 3;11:303. doi: 10.3389/fimmu.2020.00303

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Copyright © 2020 Ratnatunga, Lutzky, Kupz, Doolan, Reid, Field, Bell, Thomson and Miles.

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

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Projected NTM cases in Queensland, Australia from 2020 to 2040. NTM cases from 2012 to 2019 were reported by the Epidemiology and Research Unit, QLD Department of Health and analyzed using R v3.5.2. The existing data was converted to a time series object using data from 2012 to 2019. The R package forecast (65) was used to generate the predictions from 2020 to 2040. The order for the model was estimated using the auto. arima() function which takes in a time series and returns the best AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model according to either AIC, AICc, or BIC value. Each model was input to the forecast function with levels average, 5, 10, and 25 plotted.