Table 2.
Mortality rates and hazard ratios for over a 9-year follow-up period among English and Brazilian ageing cohorts, by selected baseline risk factors (The ELSA and SIGa-Bagé cohort studies).
| Deaths (rate per 1000 person years) | Model 1a: HR (95% CI) | Model 2b: HR (95% CI) | Model 3c: HR (95% CI) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELSA | SIGa-Bagé | ELSA | SIGa-Bagé | ELSA | SIGa-Bagé | ELSA | SIGa-Bagé | |
| All | 659 (25.4) | 638 (72.3) | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Smoking: | ||||||||
| No | 575 (24.5) | 532 (71.1) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Yes | 84 (34.6) | 105 (78.3) | 1.96 (1.55–2.48) | 1.40 (1.12–1.76) | 1.73 (1.35–2.23) | 1.43 (1.10–1.85) | 1.66 (1.29–2.14) | 1.45 (1.12–1.89) |
| P < 0.001 | P = 0.004 | P < 0.001 | P = 0.008 | P < 0.001 | P = 0.005 | |||
| Hypertension: | ||||||||
| No | 184 (19.8) | 281 (71.8) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Yes | 475 (28.6) | 357 (72.7) | 1.14 (0.95–1.36) | 1.10 (0.94–1.28) | 1.05 (0.88–1.26) | 1.19 (0.99–1.43) | 1.04 (0.87–1.25) | 1.18 (0.98–1.42) |
| P = 0.148 | P = 0.246 | P = 0.575 | P = 0.055 | P = 0.666 | P = 0.073 | |||
| Diabetes: | ||||||||
| No | 560 (24.0) | 534 (71.0) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Yes | 99 (37.4) | 104 (79.8) | 1.45 (1.17–1.80) | 1.19 (0.97–1.47) | 1.30 (1.04–1.63) | 1.24 (0.98–1.56) | 1.28 (1.02–1.60) | 1.23 (0.97–1.55) |
| P = 0.001 | P = 0.102 | P = 0.023 | P = 0.075 | P = 0.032 | P = 0.087 | |||
| Obesity: | ||||||||
| No | 465 (24.8) | 433 (69.4) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Yes | 179 (25.5) | 77 (58.6) | 1.25 (1.05–1.48) | 1.07 (0.84–1.36) | 1.13 (0.95–1.35) | 1.04 (0.82–1.33) | 1.10 (0.92–1.32) | 1.05 (0.82–1.34) |
| P = 0.011 | P = 0.592 | P = 0.181 | P = 0.724 | P = 0.314 | P = 0.699 | |||
| Inactivity: | ||||||||
| No | 404 (19.2) | 300 (53.4) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Yes | 254 (51.6) | 338 (105.2) | 1.96 (1.65–2.32) | 1.63 (1.39–1.92) | 1.80 (1.51–2.14) | 1.52 (1.27–1.82) | 1.75 (1.47–2.09) | 1.50 (1.25–1.79) |
| P < 0.001 | P < 0.001 | P < 0.001 | P < 0.001 | P < 0.001 | P < 0.001 | |||
| Risk Factors: | ||||||||
| None | 82 (14.0) | 78 (56.6) | 1 | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1 |
| One or more | 561 (28.3) | 431 (69.8) | 1.60 (1.26–2.03) | 1.35 (1.07–1.72) | — | — | 1.52 (1.20–1.92) | 1.35 (1.06–1.71) |
| P < 0.001 | P = 0.012 | — | — | P = 0.001 | P = 0.014 | |||
| One | 206 (20.1) | 181 (60.3) | 1.17 (0.90–1.51) | 1.11 (0.86–1.45) | — | — | 1.15 (0.89–1.49) | 1.11 (0.86–1.44) |
| Two | 234 (37.1) | 169 (74.1) | 1.99 (1.54–2.58) | 1.51 (1.15–1.98) | — | — | 1.90 (1.46–2.46) | 1.50 (1.15–1.97) |
| Three or more | 121 (36.8) | 81 (91.0) | 2.23 (1.69–2.96) | 1.91 (1.40–2.61) | — | — | 2.06 (1.54–2.75) | 1.88 (1.37–2.57) |
| P < 0.001* | P < 0.001* | — | — | P < 0.001* | P < 0.001 | |||
| Trend | 1.37 (1.26–1.49) | 1.27 (1.16–1.39) | — | — | 1.33 (1.22–1.45) | 1.26 (1.16–1.38) | ||
| P < 0.001** | P < 0.001** | — | — | P < 0.001** | P < 0.001** | |||
aModel 1 (age- and sex-adjusted); bModel 2 (Model 1 + other risk factors); cModel 3 (Model 2 + wealth as a categorical variable); * Joint test; **Test for trend (number of risk factors entered as a single continuous variable).