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. 2020 Mar 10;10:4410. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-61304-8

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Representative fit of the within-host models to data. (a) Data (•) and model predictions (- -) of infection with P. berghei with an inoculum of 2 × 10⁷ infected RBCs (i.v.) show a steep increase in parasitemia three days after inoculation. (b) Model output for unobserved total numbers of RBCs show an increase in infected RBCs (- -) with a simultaneous decrease in uninfected RBCs (▬) resulting in anemia. However, the total number of human and murine RBC populations differs between model predictions (compare model b (bystander)), given that the estimated percentage of infected RBCs is compared to observed. Further differences in models become apparent comparing predicted time of, and total parasite numbers at, peak parasitemia P_max (see Fig. 1c). (c) Infection of SCID mice with P. falciparum through an inoculum of 3.5 × 10⁷ infected RBCs (i.v.). Human RBCs (∆) are injected daily until day seven post-infection increasing total human RBC counts (▬). (d) As uninfected RBCs (▬) increase the predicted number of mouse RBCs (• •) decrease due to random clearance of excess RBCs. After RBC injections are ceased, the model predicts a steep decline in human RBCs. Data (•) and models f to h (- -) show lower values of predicted peak parasitemia compared to model i.