Table 3.

Predictive ability (accuracy), area under the ROC curve (AUC) and mean squared error of prediction for retained fetal membranes, metritis, mastitis, displaced abomasum, lameness, clinical endometritis, respiratory disease, dystocia and subclinical ketosis using GBLUP and four Bayesian model specifications: Bayesian Ridge Regression, Bayes A, Bayes B and Bayes C.

Trait	GBLUP	Bayesian Ridge Regression	Bayes A	Bayes B	Bayes C
	Accuracy
Retained placenta	0.2600	0.2009	0.3000	0.3401	0.3219
Metritis	0.3360	0.3629	0.2097	0.2932	0.2418
Mastitis	0.3170	0.2352	0.1984	0.5546	0.2044
Displaced abomasum	0.1710	0.0615	0.0258	0.1275	0.2572
Lameness	0.1040	0.0858	0.1160	0.0931	0.1227
Clinical endometritis	0.3100	0.2530	0.3178	0.2780	0.2671
Respiratory disease	0.2510	0.0280	0.2105	0.1122	0.2350
Dystocia	0.2590	0.1307	0.3481	0.1443	0.3156
Subclinical ketosis	0.3480	0.2316	0.3023	0.2178	0.3761
	AUC
Retained placenta	0.7750	0.6819	0.7670	0.8108	0.7881
Metritis	0.7170	0.7332	0.6320	0.6805	0.6528
Mastitis	0.7810	0.6930	0.6593	0.8870	0.6707
Displaced abomasum	0.8630	0.6111	0.5515	0.7209	0.8829
Lameness	0.5809	0.6467	0.6364	0.5656	0.6572
Clinical endometritis	0.6920	0.6488	0.6896	0.6636	0.6624
Respiratory disease	0.8140	0.5626	0.8440	0.6799	0.8957
Dystocia	0.6970	0.5947	0.7301	0.6109	0.7133
Subclinical ketosis	0.7520	0.6531	0.7016	0.6447	0.7598
	Mean square error
Retained placenta	0.8970	0.2446	0.5299	0.3414	0.3077
Metritis	0.3700	0.3996	0.2481	0.1988	0.4018
Mastitis	0.7430	0.5279	0.3446	0.0879	0.5666
Displaced abomasum	0.3130	0.1940	0.1453	0.3283	0.3299
Lameness	1.4090	1.7929	1.3596	1.1740	1.0702
Clinical endometritis	0.4490	0.2634	0.2187	0.2330	0.2630
Respiratory disease	1.7760	0.5032	0.4340	0.6731	0.0202
Dystocia	0.1530	0.1370	0.1372	0.3051	0.1279
Subclinical ketosis	0.5380	0.4337	0.3405	0.4614	0.2971