Table 3.

Expected implications at the stand level of pine conversion to spruce for ecosystem services. Outcomes are graded in terms of positive outcomes “↑”, negative outcomes “↓”, and uncertain outcomes ↕. “Effect modifier” indicates management that has a strong impact on outcomes. Confidence levels (i.e. *,**,***) represent “possible”, “probable”, and “highly probable” outcomes, but are not relevant to “uncertain” outcomes

Ecosystem services	Positive or negative outcomes	Effect modifiers
Provisioning
Biomass production	↓*	Varies with type and extent of disturbance (e.g. browsing pressure vs. storm damage)
Product diversity	↓*
Wood prices	↕
Cultural
Forest aesthetics	↓**
Hiking	↓**
Hunting	↓*
Bilberry picking	↓***
Stress recovery	↓**	Potential to improve in urban areas
Regulatory services
Abiotic risks
Projected outcomes due to:
Climate damage	↓**	Extent of future GHG emissions
Storm damage	↓***	When thinning and harvest takes place
Drought damage	↓***
Fire damage	↕	Ignition risk may be lower in spruce, but damage higher if a fire occurs; unknown implications of spruce on dry sites
Frost damage	↓***
Biotic risks
Projected outcomes due to:
Browsing damage	↑***	However, conversion may increase / focus landscape scale damage
Spruce bark beetle damage	↓***
Other bark beetle damage	↓**	Tree stress may allow other bark beetles to become pest species
Root rot damage	↓***	Higher spruce stem densities are likely to increase risks