Table E1:
Deaths averted with current and scaled-up OAT coverages compared to no OAT scenario. Cells show median relative reduction in preventable deaths due to different causes with 95% credibility intervals in parentheses. Negative reductions (i.e. increases) in deaths are possible for some causes due to competing risks.
| Status quo | Scale-up OAT to 40% in the community (A) | (A) + improve OAT retention (B) | (B) + provide OAT in prisons (C) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median % reduction in deaths (95%CrI) | Median % reduction in deaths (95%CrI) | Median % reduction in deaths (95%CrI) | Median % reduction in deaths (95%CrI) | |
| Kentucky | ||||
| HCV | 0.1% (0 – 0.3) | 1.3% (−0.3 – 3.1) | 1.8% (−0.7 – 4.7) | 2.6% (−1.4 – 7) |
| Overdose | 1.5% (0.2 – 2.1) | 12.9% (2.2 – 17) | 29.5% (23.1 – 38) | 57% (48.1 – 62.9) |
| Suicide | 1.7% (1.2 – 2.3) | 14.6% (12.1 – 17.7) | 22.5% (18.2 – 29) | 43.4% (35.8 – 50.8) |
| Injury | 2.3% (1.8 – 3) | 20.3% (18.1 – 22.7) | 31.7% (25.7 – 37.1) | 43.6% (39.1 – 50) |
| Other | 0% (0 – 0.2) | 0.2% (−0.4 – 2) | 0.1% (−0.7 – 2.9) | 0% (−1.3 – 3.6) |
| Total | 0.3% (0.1 – 0.6) | 2.4% (1.2 – 4.5) | 4.4% (2.4 – 8.5) | 7.7% (4.4 – 13.3) |
| Kiev | ||||
| HIV | 2.2% (1.2 – 3.7) | 21.8% (15.2 – 30.1) | 28.8% (19.6 – 39.5) | 34.9% (24.4 – 45.8) |
| HCV | 0.4% (0 – 0.9) | 4.5% (0.4 – 8.2) | 5.7% (0.3 – 10.9) | 6.1% (−1 – 12) |
| Overdose | 1.8% (1.1 – 3) | 19.3% (16.3 – 21.6) | 30.9% (22.4 – 35.4) | 39.2% (29.7 – 43.5) |
| Suicide | 1.3% (0.8 – 2) | 13.7% (11.6 – 15.3) | 19% (14.1 – 23) | 31.8% (25.4 – 40.1) |
| Injury | 1.9% (1.2 – 3) | 20% (18.3 – 21.4) | 27.9% (22.3 – 31.9) | 33.9% (27.1 – 37.9) |
| Other | −'0.1% (−0.2 – 0.1) | −'0.6% (−2.2 – 0.7) | −'0.7% (−3.2 – 0.9) | −'1% (−3.9 – 1.1) |
| Total | 0.8% (0.5 – 1.4) | 8.6% (6.8 – 11.5) | 11.7% (8.8 – 16.4) | 14.5% (11.3 – 20.4) |
| Tehran | ||||
| HIV | 16.3% (5.2 – 44.4) | 33.4% (11.2 – 63.4) | 41.2% (14.0 – 70.3) | 56.2% (19.4 – 78.6) |
| HCV | 5.0% (0.6 – 17.6) | 9.0% (1.6 – 25.7) | 10.6% (1.0 – 30.0) | 12.9% (−2.9 – 35.6) |
| Overdose | 6.6% (1.6 – 10.2) | 12.7% (6.6 – 18.5) | 22.6% (16.6 – 28.1) | 51.2% (43.3 – 56.5) |
| Suicide | 21.8% (16 – 25.6) | 26.1% (21.9 – 30.1) | 35.2% (29.5 – 39.4) | 51.1% (40.2 – 57.6) |
| Injury | 11.1% (4.6 – 14.5) | 20.8% (18.1 – 23.3) | 27.2% (23.2 – 30.3) | 40.1% (33.8 – 45.2) |
| Other | −'2.0% (−3.5 - −0.7) | −'3.8% (−6.4 - −1.8) | −'5.1% (−8.9 - −2.8) | −'8.3% (−14.5 - −4.5) |
| Total | 6.5% (2.5 – 12.1) | 12.5% (6.0 – 18.0) | 16.7% (9.1 – 22.4) | 25.9% (16.7 – 33.2) |