Table 3. Effect of different variables on the probability of transformation of native forest and agricultural-livestock lands into pine plantations (logistic regression, binomial distribution).

				Surrounding cover					Hosmer and Lemeshow (GOF)
Response variable	Slope (%)	Distance to pulp mill	Distance to roads	Agricultural–livestock	Native forest	Pine plantations	Δ AICc	AIC	X-square	p-value
NF 1960–1975		-0.42 (*)			0.41 (*)	0.65 (***)	0	210.58	2.56	0.96
NF 1975–1998							-	-	-	-
NF 1998–2014		.				1.14 (*)	0	64.66	6.66	0.57
AL 1960–1975	0.53 (***)				0.37 (*)	0.31 (*)	0	249.23	7.52	0.48
AL1975-1998							-	-	-	-
AL 1998–2014	0.87 (**)		.	.			0	113.03	11.62	0.17
AL 1998–2014	0.91 (**)		.	0.62 (*)		.	0.39	113.23	8.10	0.42

NF: Native forest to pine plantations, AL: Agricultural-livestock lands to pine plantations

GOF: Goodness of fit

p-value significance

(***) p<0.001

(**) p<0.01

(*) p<0.05

‘.’: Present in the model but without significance