Table 4.
Classification of cardiovascular event groups within the entire cancer survivor cohort based on summed risk scores across 5-year age prediction time points
| Outcome and model | Risk score | Risk group | No. of events | No. at risk* | Cumulative incidences, % (SD) |
vs siblings |
vs group above† |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 y | Age 50 y | Rate ratio (95% CI) | P ‡ | Rate ratio (95% CI) | P ‡ | |||||
| Heart failure | ||||||||||
| Age 20 y | — | Sibling | 8 | 4521 | 0.03 (0.03) | 0.6 (0.3) | 1.00 (Referent) | — | — | — |
| <5 | Moderate | 41 | 10 819 | 0.4 (0.1) | 1.4 (0.3) | 4.41 (2.07 to 9.41) | <.001 | 1.00 (Referent) | — | |
| ≥5 | High | 110 | 3996 | 2.7 (0.3) | 11.8 (2.1) | 30.89 (14.99 to 63.64) | <.001 | 7.00 (4.89 to 10.04) | <.001 | |
| Age 25 y | — | Sibling | 8 | 3796 | 0.2 (0.1) | 0.6 (0.3) | 1.00 (Referent) | — | — | — |
| <5 | Moderate | 54 | 8873 | 0.5 (0.1) | 2.4 (0.5) | 4.62 (2.19 to 9.73) | <.001 | 1.00 (Referent) | — | |
| ≥5 | High | 116 | 4050 | 2.8 (0.3) | 11.2 (1.6) | 21.75 (10.60 to 44.63) | <.001 | 4.71 (3.41 to 6.50) | <.001 | |
| Age 30 y | — | Sibling | 7 | 2923 | 0.2 (0.1) | 0.5 (0.3) | 1.00 (Referent) | — | — | — |
| <5 | Moderate | 41 | 6129 | 0.8 (0.2) | 2.2 (0.5) | 4.19 (1.87 to 9.40) | <.001 | 1.00 (Referent) | — | |
| ≥5 | High | 69 | 2087 | 3.2 (0.5) | 10.2 (1.5) | 17.74 (8.12 to 38.75) | <.001 | 4.24 (2.88 to 6.23) | <.001 | |
| Age 35 y | — | Sibling | 3 | 2077 | 0.1 (0.1) | 0.4 (0.3) | 1.00 (Referent) | — | — | — |
| <5 | Moderate | 26 | 3427 | 1.3 (0.3) | 1.9 (0.5) | 7.09 (2.15 to 23.42) | <.001 | 1.00 (Referent) | — | |
| ≥5 | High | 46 | 1229 | 6.3 (1.0) | 9.7 (1.7) | 31.12 (9.67 to 100.16) | <.001 | 4.39 (2.72 to 7.08) | <.001 | |
| Ischemic heart disease | ||||||||||
| Age 20 y | — | Sibling | 12 | 4521 | 0.03 (0.03) | 1.0 (0.4) | 1.00 (Referent) | — | — | — |
| <3 | Moderate | 47 | 13 286 | 0.3 (0.06) | 1.6 (0.4) | 3.09 (1.63 to 5.85) | <.001 | 1.00 (Referent) | — | |
| ≥3 | High | 49 | 2067 | 1.4 (0.3) | 8.9 (2.1) | 13.39 (7.09 to 25.28) | <.001 | 4.34 (2.89 to 6.52) | <.001 | |
| Age 25 y | — | Sibling | 12 | 3796 | 0.2 (0.1) | 1.0 (0.4) | 1.00 (Referent) | — | — | — |
| <3 | Moderate | 38 | 9891 | 0.4 (0.1) | 1.4 (0.4) | 2.13 (1.11 to 4.10) | .02 | 1.00 (Referent) | — | |
| ≥3 | High | 122 | 3588 | 2.0 (0.3) | 10.5 (1.2) | 12.97 (7.17 to 23.47) | <.001 | 6.09 (4.20 to 8.85) | <.001 | |
| Age 30 y | — | Sibling | 11 | 2923 | 0.3 (0.1) | 0.9 (0.4) | 1.00 (Referent) | — | — | — |
| <4 | Moderate | 23 | 5975 | 0.5 (0.1) | 1.2 (0.3) | 1.68 (0.82 to 3.46) | .16 | 1.00 (Referent) | — | |
| ≥4 | High | 111 | 2649 | 3.4 (0.4) | 11.1 (1.2) | 12.46 (6.70 to 23.15) | <.001 | 7.40 (4.74 to 11.56)‡ | <.001 | |
| Age 35 y | — | Sibling | 6 | 2077 | 0.5 (0.2) | 0.8 (0.4) | 1.00 (Referent) | — | — | — |
| <4 | Moderate | 11 | 3091 | 0.7 (0.3) | 0.9 (0.4) | 1.77 (0.66 to 4.76) | .26 | 1.00 (Referent) | — | |
| ≥4 | High | 85 | 1821 | 7.0 (0.8) | 10.4 (1.3) | 17.79 (7.80 to 40.48) | <.001 | 10.06 (5.38 to 18.80) | <.001 | |
| Stroke | ||||||||||
| Age 20 y | — | Sibling | 14 | 4521 | 0.1 (0.04) | 0.9 (0.3) | 1.00 (Referent) | — | — | — |
| <4 | Moderate | 63 | 13 445 | 0.4 (0.07) | 2.6 (0.6) | 3.14 (1.75 to 5.66) | <.001 | 1.00 (Referent) | — | |
| ≥4 | High | 90 | 1680 | 4.1 (0.6) | 18.3 (3.7) | 31.31 (17.73 to 55.27) | <.001 | 9.96 (7.20 to 13.77) | <.001 | |
| Age 25 y | — | Sibling | 12 | 3796 | 0.3 (0.1) | 0.9 (0.3) | 1.00 (Referent) | — | — | — |
| <4 | Moderate | 80 | 11 825 | 0.7 (0.1) | 2.7 (0.4) | 3.36 (1.83 to 6.16) | <.001 | 1.00 (Referent) | — | |
| ≥4 | High | 65 | 1439 | 4.8 (0.8) | 15.0 (2.8) | 24.46 (13.19 to 45.35) | <.001 | 7.28 (5.24 to 10.10) | <.001 | |
| Age 30 y | — | Sibling | 11 | 2923 | 0.3 (0.1) | 0.9 (0.3) | 1.00 (Referent) | — | — | — |
| <4 | Moderate | 62 | 7369 | 0.8 (0.1) | 2.8 (0.5) | 2.98 (1.57 to 5.68) | <.001 | 1.00 (Referent) | — | |
| ≥4 | High | 48 | 1105 | 5.9 (1.0) | 12.1 (2.3) | 18.01 (9.30 to 34.86) | <.001 | 6.04 (4.14 to 8.81) | <.001 | |
| Age 35 y | — | Sibling | 5 | 2077 | 0.3 (0.2) | 0.6 (0.3) | 1.00 (Referent) | — | — | — |
| <5 | Moderate | 31 | 3956 | 1.3 (0.3) | 2.2 (0.5) | 4.09 (1.60 to 10.48) | .003 | 1.00 (Referent) | — | |
| ≥5 | High | 29 | 877 | 6.0 (1.3) | 10.2 (2.5) | 22.54 (8.75 to 58.05) | <.001 | 5.51 (3.32 to 9.17) | <.001 | |
*
Number at risk varies by outcome and model as they exclude individuals with missing data and account for the sampling weights of survivors of acute lymphoblastic leukemia. CI = confidence interval.
†
Comparisons are vs the immediate preceding group (eg, high vs moderate).
‡
Two-sided Wald test.