Table 1.

Parameter estimates for 2019-nCoV in Wuhan, China.

Parameter	Definitions	Estimated Mean Value	Standard Deviation	Data Source
$c$	Contact rate	$14.781$	$0.904$	MCMC
$\beta$	Probability of transmission per contact	$2.1011\times {10}^{-8}$	$1.1886\times {10}^{-9}$	MCMC
$q$	Quarantined rate of exposed individuals	$1.8887\times {10}^{-7}$	$6.3654\times {10}^{-8}$	MCMC
$\sigma$	Transition rate of exposed individuals to the infected class	$1/7$	–	WHO
$\lambda$	Rate at which the quarantined uninfected contacts were released into the wider community	$1/14$	–	[18,19]
$\varrho$	Probability of having symptoms among infected individuals	$0.86834$	$0.049227$	MCMC
${\delta }_I$	Transition rate of symptomatic infected individuals to the quarantined infected class	$0.13266$	$0.021315$	MCMC
${\delta }_q$	Transition rate of quarantined exposed individuals to the quarantined infected class	$0.1259$	$0.052032$	MCMC
${\gamma }_I$	Recovery rate of symptomatic infected individuals	$0.33029$	$0.052135$	MCMC
${\gamma }_A$	Recovery rate of asymptomatic infected individuals	$0.13978$	$0.034821$	MCMC
${\gamma }_H$	Recovery rate of quarantined infected individuals	$0.11624$	$0.038725$	MCMC
$\alpha$	Disease-induced death rate	$1.7826\times {10}^{-5}$	$6.8331\times {10}^{-6}$	MCMC
Initial Values	Definitions	Estimated Mean Value	Standard Deviation	Data Source
$S\left(0\right)$	Initial susceptible population	$11,081,000$	–	[18]
$E\left(0\right)$	Initial exposed population	$105.1$	$35.465$	MCMC
$I\left(0\right)$	Initial symptomatic infected population	$27.679$	$11.551$	MCMC
$A\left(0\right)$	Initial asymptomatic infected population	$53.839$	$25.25$	MCMC
$S_q\left(0\right)$	Initial quarantined susceptible population	$739$	–	[18]
$E_q\left(0\right)$	Initial quarantined exposed population	$1.1642$	$0.20778$	MCMC
$H\left(0\right)$	Initial quarantined infected population	$1$	–	[18]
$R\left(0\right)$	Initial recovered population	$2$	–	[18]

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC); World Health Organization (WHO).