Table 2.
Relative risk and 95% confidence interval of new‐onset diabetes in 2016, by distinct body mass index trajectories and categories of baseline body mass index
| Variables | N | Cases (%) |
Model 1 Adjusted RR (95% CI) † |
Model 2 Adjusted RR (95% CI) ‡ |
Model 3 Adjusted RR (95% CI) § |
Model 4 Adjusted RR (95% CI) ¶ |
Model 5 Adjusted RR (95% CI) †† |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMI trajectories | 4,519 | 168 (3.7) | |||||
| Trajectory 1: Low | 884 | 5 (0.6) | 1.00 (Ref) | 1.00 (Ref) | 1.00 (Ref) | 1.00 (Ref) | 1.00 (Ref) |
| Trajectory 2: Moderate | 1,511 | 30 (2.0) | 2.66 (1.04–6.81) | 2.48 (0.96–6.41) | 2.23 (0.86–5.82) | 1.66 (0.64–4.31) | 1.48 (0.56–3.88) |
| Trajectory 3: Moderate‐high | 1,510 | 77 (5.1) | 5.51 (2.24–13.54) | 5.07 (2.04–12.57) | 3.65 (1.45–9.14) | 2.47 (0.98–6.23) | 2.11 (0.84–5.32) |
| Trajectory 4: High | 614 | 56 (9.1) | 9.17 (3.67–22.89) | 8.26 (3.28–20.77) | 5.35 (2.12–13.52) | 3.24 (1.27–8.24) | 2.79 (1.09–7.11) |
| P‐value for trend | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | 0.001 | ||
| Baseline BMI (groups)‡‡ | 4,323 | 155 (3.6) | |||||
| First group (<20.4) | 848 | 7 (0.8) | 1.00 (Ref) | 1.00 (Ref) | 1.00 (Ref) | 1.00 (Ref) | – |
| Second group (20.4≤ to <23.6) | 1,444 | 20 (1.4) | 1.26 (0.53–2.98) | 1.14 (0.47–2.76) | 0.94 (0.39–2.28) | 0.71 (0.30–1.68) | – |
| Third group (23.6≤ to <27.0) | 1,443 | 79 (5.5) | 3.71 (1.68–8.20) | 3.30 (1.47–7.39) | 2.16 (0.95–4.94) | 1.33 (0.57–3.08) | – |
| Fourth group (≥27.0) | 588 | 49 (8.3) | 5.34 (2.36–12.09) | 4.71 (2.07–10.72) | 2.72 (1.18–6.25) | 1.45 (0.62–3.41) | – |
| P‐value for trend | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | 0.020 | |||
| Baseline BMI (quartiles) | 4,323 | 155 (3.6) | |||||
| First quartile: (<20.9) | 1,083 | 9 (0.8) | 1.00 (Ref) | 1.00 (Ref) | 1.00 (Ref) | 1.00 (Ref) | – |
| Second quartile: (20.9≤ to <23.4) | 1,079 | 15 (1.4) | 1.26 (0.55–2.88) | 1.16 (0.50–2.69) | 1.04 (0.45–2.43) | 0.83 (0.37–1.87) | – |
| Third quartile: (23.4≤ to <25.6) | 1,081 | 51 (4.7) | 3.38 (1.64–6.96) | 3.05 (1.46–6.38) | 2.28 (1.08–4.80) | 1.41 (0.67–2.95) | – |
| Fourth quartile (≥25.6) | 1,080 | 80 (7.4) | 4.92 (2.40–10.05) | 4.40 (2.14–9.03) | 2.76 (1.33–5.74) | 1.73 (0.84–3.55) | – |
| P‐value for trend | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | 0.008 |
Distinct body mass index (BMI) trajectories were identified using six BMI tests (during 2011–2016). †Model 1: adjusted for age and sex at baseline. ‡Model 2: further adjusted for race, occupation, current smoker, current alcohol drinker and married status at baseline. §Model 3: further adjusted for diagnosis of hypertension, use of antihypertensive, total cholesterol, triglycerides, hemoglobin, creatinine and uric acid at baseline. ¶Model 4: further adjusted for fasting blood glucose and family history of diabetes at baseline. ††Model 5: sensitivity analysis was carried out by excluding 196 participants (4,323 participants left) who had missing information on baseline BMI. ‡‡From the first to fourth group, the proportions of participants were 19.6, 33.4, 33.4 and 13.6%, respectively. The divisions were consistent with the proportions of BMI trajectories. RR, relative risk.