Table 3.
Relative risk and 95% confidence interval of new‐onset diabetes in 2016, by body mass index trajectories identified using fewer body mass index tests
| Variables | N † | Cases (%) |
Model 1 Adjusted RR (95% CI) ‡ |
Model 2 Adjusted RR (95% CI) § |
Model 3 Adjusted RR (95% CI) ¶ |
Model 4 Adjusted RR (95% CI) †† |
Model 5 Adjusted RR (95% CI) ‡‡ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMI trajectories (four tests) | 4,475 | 167 (3.7) | |||||
| Trajectory 1: Low | 1,031 | 7 (0.7) | 1.00 (Ref) | 1.00 (Ref) | 1.00 (Ref) | 1.00 (Ref) | 1.00 (Ref) |
| Trajectory 2: Moderate | 1,487 | 35 (2.4) | 2.66 (1.11–6.33) | 2.47 (1.03–5.94) | 2.07 (0.85–5.00) | 1.60 (0.67–3.82) | 3.65 (0.83–16.09) |
| Trajectory 3: Moderate‐high | 1,440 | 73 (5.1) | 5.13 (2.22–11.88) | 4.75 (2.03–11.10) | 3.28 (1.39–7.79) | 2.27 (0.96–5.38) | 4.14 (0.95–18.13) |
| Trajectory 4: High | 517 | 52 (10.1) | 9.50 (4.05–22.26) | 8.59 (3.64–20.27) | 5.22 (2.20–12.43) | 3.10 (1.30–7.38) | 5.46 (1.20–24.82) |
| P‐value for trend | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | 0.018 | ||
| BMI trajectories (three tests) | 4,408 | 166 (3.8) | |||||
| Trajectory 1: Low | 984 | 6 (0.6) | 1.00 (Ref) | 1.00 (Ref) | 1.00 (Ref) | 1.00 (Ref) | 1.00 (Ref) |
| Trajectory 2: Moderate | 1,493 | 33 (2.2) | 2.49 (1.11–5.59) | 2.32 (1.02–5.27) | 2.04 (0.89–4.66) | 1.52 (0.67–3.45) | 2.35 (0.69–8.05) |
| Trajectory 3: Moderate‐high | 1,433 | 76 (5.3) | 4.37 (2.00–9.56) | 4.06 (1.84–8.95) | 2.85 (1.27–6.39) | 1.93 (0.86–4.34) | 3.44 (1.00–11.84) |
| Trajectory 4: High | 498 | 51 (10.2) | 8.27 (3.73–18.36) | 7.51 (3.36–16.82) | 4.81 (2.13–10.87) | 2.71 (1.19–6.19) | 4.67 (1.35–16.15) |
| P‐value for trend | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 |
†For body mass index (BMI) trajectories identified using four BMI tests, 44 participants were excluded from the total population due to the analysis requiring at least two BMI tests. Similarly, for BMI trajectories identified using three BMI tests, 111 participants were excluded from the total population. ‡Model 1: adjusted for age and sex at baseline. §Model 2: further adjusted for race, occupation, current smoker, current alcohol drinker and married status at baseline. ¶Model 3: further adjusted for diagnosis of hypertension, use of antihypertensive, total cholesterol, triglycerides, hemoglobin, creatinine and uric acid at baseline. ††Model 4: further adjusted for fasting blood glucose and family history of diabetes at baseline. ‡‡Model 5: Patients with diabetes might lose or control their bodyweight. To avoid the potential impact of new‐onset diabetes during follow up on BMI, sensitivity analysis was carried out. For BMI trajectories identified using four BMI tests, 114 participants who were diagnosed with diabetes or had no information about diabetes in 2014 were further excluded. For BMI trajectories identified using three BMI tests, 87 participants who were diagnosed with diabetes or had no information about diabetes in 2013 were further excluded. CI, confidence interval; RR, relative risk.