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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2020 Mar 18.
Published in final edited form as: Am Econ Rev. 2019 Dec;109(12):4178–4219. doi: 10.1257/aer.20180279

Figure 4. Average Life Expectancy for Continuously Enrolled FFS Medicare Beneficiaries Who Later Die within One Year, 2001–2013.

Figure 4.

Notes: Life expectancy for each beneficiary is estimated as of January 1 of the calendar year of death. Estimates for Medicare FFS average are produced by MLE estimation of survival model (3) with no covariates. Estimates for Cox (age, sex) and Cox (age, sex, 27 chronic conditions) are produced by estimating the survival model (3) using age and sex, and age, sex, and 27 chronic conditions, as predictors, respectively. Estimates for Cox-Lasso are produced by machine learning estimation of the survival model (4) with 1,062 predictors (including interactions). Estimates for Survival random forest are produced by machine learning estimation using the same predictors as Cox-Lasso.