Fig. 6. Hypothetical calendar dating probability estimates for the Santorini/Thera volcanic destruction level from the data and models in (55) (cyan) and (56) (magenta) and the olive branch outer dated segment (13, 54, 58) (green) using a likely maximum possible change scenario.

(A to C) With AA BCP calibration dataset (13) with a curve resolution of 5 years (smoothing the noisy 1-year data). (D to F) Application of a hypothetical further addition of +21 ¹⁴C years ~3550 to 3486 cal B.P. (1601 to 1537 BCE) to reflect the positive Mediterranean offset (Fig. 2B); curve resolution, 5 years (smoothing the noisy 1-year data). Main hpd regions are those contiguous intervals identified within the overall 68.2 and 95.4% hpd ranges.