Figure 3.

Maximum a posteriori (MAP)‐based predicted nadir concentration is not the most (a posteriori) probable nadir concentration. We considered the single cycle study docetaxel with four observed data points $y_{1:4}$ and forecasted the nadir concentration based on the posterior $p(\mathrm{\theta }|y_{1:4})$ using MAP estimation and the full Bayes (reference) approach (sampling importance resampling with $S={10}^6$), where $\mathrm{\theta }$ comprises the parameters baseline neutrophil counts (Circ0), mean transit time (MTT), and “Slope” (drug effect). The MAP estimate of the parameters coincides with the mode of the posterior distribution of the parameters (left panel), however, the mode is not preserved under nonlinear transformation (see text). Therefore, $c_{\mathit{nadir}}\left({\widehat{\theta }}^{\mathit{MAP}}\right)$ with $c_{\text{nadir}}(·)$ denoting some observable $T(·)$ does not equal the mode of the a posteriori probability $p_{T\left(\mathrm{\Theta }\right)}(·|y_{1:n})$ of the nadir concentration. Please also refer to Figure S1 for further illustration and analysis.