Fig 4. Estimating of time of emergence from case reports data.

a) The Poisson transmission model assumes R_eff is a piecewise linear function of time, with a quadratic increase from $R_{\text{eff}}=R_{\text{eff}}^i$ at t = 0 to R_eff = 1 at t = Δ. The time of emergence, Δ, is estimated from the simulated data using Bayesian MCMC (see Methods). b) Final posterior density of the time of emergence. The MAP values of $\widehat{\Delta }$ for each model are listed in Table 1.