Table 1.
Assumption | Description | Model 1* | Model 2* | Model 3 | Model 4 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Waning of vaccine-induced immunity | No | Vaccine-induced immunity is comparable to natural immunity, lowering the risk of reinfection and probability of RVGE given infection; this immunity does not wane | X | X | ||
Yes | Vaccine-induced immunity provides complete protection against infection with rotavirus; this immunity wanes over time, leaving the infant with the same susceptibility to rotavirus infection and RVGE as prior to vaccination | X | X | |||
Heterogeneity in vaccine response | No | The probability of responding to each vaccine dose is independent; infants who responded to the first vaccine dose have the same probability of responding to the second vaccine dose as those who failed to respond | X | X | ||
Yes | Infants who responded to the first dose of the vaccine are more likely to respond to subsequent doses, whereas infants who failed to respond to the first dose are more likely to be “non-responders” (they would fail to respond to rotavirus vaccination regardless of the number of doses administered) | X | X |
Models 1 and 2 were not fitted to the post-vaccination data. RVGE, rotavirus-associated gastroenteritis.