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Expected value of δ given a P < 0.05 outcome assuming an exponential prior with δ = 0.22. The mean of the distribution of P < 0.05 underlying effect sizes is maximized at δmax = 0.463 when an intermediate value of N is used (N = 13 in this example). The expected value of the inflated observed effect size associated with δmax (not shown in the figure) is d = 0.850.
