Table 2.

Overall performance of the social response prediction models. Model performance was evaluated based on six metrics: accuracy, sensitivity, sensitivity looking only at weeks with articles in the preceding 3 weeks, sensitivity looking only at weeks with articles in the preceding week, specificity, and precision. Model $0\to 1$ predicted the onset of periods of social response, while Model $1\to 0$ predicted the end of such periods

	Accuracy	Sensitivity			Specificity	Precision
		All weeks	Weeks with one or more articles in prior 3 weeks	Weeks with one or more articles in prior week
Next week ($Y_{ijt}^1$)
Model $0\to 1$	0.991	0.213	0.389	0.460	0.995	0.146
Model $1\to 0$	0.923	0.956	–	–	0.821	0.943
Next 2 weeks ($Y_{ijt}^2$)
Model $0\to 1$	0.988	0.179	0.367	0.452	0.994	0.193
Model $1\to 0$	0.916	0.954	–	–	0.780	0.940
Next 3 weeks ($Y_{ijt}^3$)
Model $0\to 1$	0.984	0.162	0.363	0.457	0.993	0.221
Model $1\to 0$	0.909	0.951	–	–	0.745	0.936